Submitted by Neurogence t3_zvni6x in singularity
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Comments
manOnPavementWaving t1_j1q0sy5 wrote
Not saying you're wrong, cuz I also don't see how GPT4 won't be released in 2023, but most wrong predictions are a result of "reading between the lines", and reading into it what you wanna hear
dimsycamore t1_j1q19r6 wrote
> Confirms
> we can infer
Hmmm
ihateshadylandlords t1_j1q252n wrote
OP needs a dictionary.
EOE97 t1_j1q37fj wrote
It's the begining of "proto-AGI" achktually.
We will undoubtably have proto-AGI by 2023, with the likes of GATO2 and GPT4 (plus whatever Stability AI and others have in store).
True AGI is probably still 4-10 years away from now, late 2020s to early 2030s basically. (If there's no unexpected AI winter).
Neurogence OP t1_j1q3gc5 wrote
If you want more hype, check out this tweet by this dude, idk who he is but he is adding fuel to the hype train:
>GPT4 will be out soon and will probably cause a similar economic shock to one from Covid. Instant distribution with nearly instant adoption and nearly instant productivity increase for hundreds of millions of knowledge workers. Brace yourselves, 2023 is coming
Source: https://mobile.twitter.com/Nick_Davidov
Frankly, I think he might be delusional lol, but I love the hype and hopefully he is at least half right.
[deleted] t1_j1q3k9d wrote
camdoodlebop t1_j1q3ty4 wrote
why should we care what horses have to think?
Emory_C t1_j1q65hv wrote
Honestly, I’m disappointed in OpenAI. Each release seems to make it more sanitized and dumber, albeit more useful for corporations.
HumpyMagoo t1_j1q65m8 wrote
something in 2033 i would expect would be large ai systems and a human level AI that is my personal companion with a virtual appearance that is an expert in all fields that will help me achieve a better standard of living
DungeonsAndDradis t1_j1q68l3 wrote
> neigh sayers
nay sayers, my friend. :)
DungeonsAndDradis t1_j1q6mq0 wrote
We're in the hay day of AI
eve_of_distraction t1_j1q7a3j wrote
As progress keeps galloping along, soon all these neigh sayers will be whinnying about AGI when it starts jockeying them for their careers. 🐴
trendafili t1_j1q7fvc wrote
It really isn't difficult to not lie.
fireflanker t1_j1q7sef wrote
A confirmation is something different
will_dormer t1_j1qafh6 wrote
Why quote a random idiot. I know we all love tech abd singularity here, but still
Dustangelms t1_j1qfbct wrote
GPT3 can help.
Apprehensive-Ear4638 t1_j1qfuli wrote
Lol my bad.
HereComeDatHue t1_j1qizyi wrote
"Confirms" "gotta read between the lines" "infer". Hmm...
AsuhoChinami t1_j1qlf1m wrote
What is your definition of proto-AGI? How capable would proto-AGO be of doing research, namely medical research?
Tavrin t1_j1qlpcr wrote
Can we stop with those clickbait posts about Sam Altman speaking about GPT-4 ? Until he or someone else at OpenAI say something tangible about it, it's only rumors or in this case suppositions/whishful thinking.
MercySound t1_j1qlrig wrote
Even though this is far from a "confirm", I'm one to be very optimistic about the advancement of AI / Machine Learning. IMO - humanity not only survives AI but we also benefit as a whole. It may not be utopia but it will be far from doomsday. This is also considering we, as individuals, need to do our part in whatever way we can to help see AI through in a positive direction. We can't just stand idly by!!
Down_The_Rabbithole t1_j1qonpd wrote
AGI can't come from transformer models. They simply don't scale up well enough. The T in GPT stands for Transformer.
Hence GPT-4 isn't going to be the beginning of AGI. Anyone familiar with machine learning can tell you this. Nobody is claiming that this will lead to AGI either.
This subreddit really really needs to work on misinformation and clearing some misunderstandings up.
slashd t1_j1qp59g wrote
What did we expect in 2033?
dietcheese t1_j1qroz1 wrote
But I find it fun
Drown_The_Gods t1_j1quc45 wrote
GO TAKE A COLD SHOWER!
ChronoPsyche t1_j1qv2rq wrote
OP, you should apply for a job with the Daily Mail. Your skills of clickbait sensationalism would definitely be useful to them.
metal079 t1_j1r8dps wrote
I swear this sub sometimes..
ajahiljaasillalla t1_j1rbtii wrote
The clickbait headlines will be written by bots soon though.
pre-DrChad t1_j1rsbn6 wrote
By itself probably not very capable. Working with humans it will speed things up. Narrow AI has already sped up drug discovery. AI is also bringing in silico human models for use in trials which should speed up drug development.
AGI is probably when it can do research on its own independent of human input. That will be a game changer
Neurogence OP t1_j1rzwpb wrote
Just clickbait that you fell for.
ihateshadylandlords t1_j1s0zwx wrote
lol now you’re trying to save face. Just take your L and pick up a dictionary.
Neurogence OP t1_j1s1wjw wrote
Bro this is an anonymous forum. Does it look like I give AF lol. You're just mad that the title of the post didn't meet your expectations
ihateshadylandlords t1_j1s2rdt wrote
>Does it look like I give AF
Clearly you do. Now get that dictionary.
AsuhoChinami t1_j1s2vk0 wrote
How common is AI in drug discovery now? Last I read up on it was 2020 maybe. Back then, it was common among new start-ups, but nobody else. Hell if I know why. New thing bad, I guess. How much time does it shave off the 12-15 year creation pipeline?
And I had no idea silico models were being used. Is that a very recent development or something? When I last looked into this in 2019/2020 it was still more theoretical.
pre-DrChad t1_j1s4v22 wrote
Look up Insilico medicine, I believe they are the company that uses AI the most for drug discovery. They already have a drug for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis that was developed completely by AI
And organ on a chip models are already being used. Full scale in silico models not yet, but like I said maybe proto AGI enables that.
Development shortens the drug development pipeline by like 90%+, and in silico models could shorten trial process by years. Go straight to phase 3 human trials skip the previous steps etc
AsuhoChinami t1_j1sd254 wrote
90 percent? Do you mean that AI and organ-on-a-chip shorten the whole process has shortened the process from 12-15 years down to 1-1.5?
pre-DrChad t1_j1sfgqy wrote
No 90% is specifically for drug development only. I don’t know the exact number 90% is just an estimate. But I’ve read AI speeds up drug discovery a ton.
And with full in silico models instead of clinical trials taking 10+ years, it will take 2-3 years instead. Pre clinical testing on the in silico model should take under a year, and then the phase 3 trial on humans should take 1-2 years.
So overall the entire process from developing a drug to getting it on the market could go from 15 years to under 5 years.
Apprehensive-Ear4638 t1_j1q0h6t wrote
This is so hyped and I'm trying to tamper my expectations but am failing to do so. Really kind of hoping the neigh sayers are wrong and this is the beginning of AGI.
Who knows?
Ready for something to materialize.