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EOE97 t1_j1q37fj wrote

Reply to comment by Apprehensive-Ear4638 in Sam Altman Confirms GPT 4 release in 2023 by Neurogence

It's the begining of "proto-AGI" achktually.

We will undoubtably have proto-AGI by 2023, with the likes of GATO2 and GPT4 (plus whatever Stability AI and others have in store).

True AGI is probably still 4-10 years away from now, late 2020s to early 2030s basically. (If there's no unexpected AI winter).

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AsuhoChinami t1_j1qlf1m wrote

What is your definition of proto-AGI? How capable would proto-AGO be of doing research, namely medical research?

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pre-DrChad t1_j1rsbn6 wrote

By itself probably not very capable. Working with humans it will speed things up. Narrow AI has already sped up drug discovery. AI is also bringing in silico human models for use in trials which should speed up drug development.

AGI is probably when it can do research on its own independent of human input. That will be a game changer

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AsuhoChinami t1_j1s2vk0 wrote

How common is AI in drug discovery now? Last I read up on it was 2020 maybe. Back then, it was common among new start-ups, but nobody else. Hell if I know why. New thing bad, I guess. How much time does it shave off the 12-15 year creation pipeline?

And I had no idea silico models were being used. Is that a very recent development or something? When I last looked into this in 2019/2020 it was still more theoretical.

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pre-DrChad t1_j1s4v22 wrote

Look up Insilico medicine, I believe they are the company that uses AI the most for drug discovery. They already have a drug for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis that was developed completely by AI

And organ on a chip models are already being used. Full scale in silico models not yet, but like I said maybe proto AGI enables that.

Development shortens the drug development pipeline by like 90%+, and in silico models could shorten trial process by years. Go straight to phase 3 human trials skip the previous steps etc

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AsuhoChinami t1_j1sd254 wrote

90 percent? Do you mean that AI and organ-on-a-chip shorten the whole process has shortened the process from 12-15 years down to 1-1.5?

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pre-DrChad t1_j1sfgqy wrote

No 90% is specifically for drug development only. I don’t know the exact number 90% is just an estimate. But I’ve read AI speeds up drug discovery a ton.

And with full in silico models instead of clinical trials taking 10+ years, it will take 2-3 years instead. Pre clinical testing on the in silico model should take under a year, and then the phase 3 trial on humans should take 1-2 years.

So overall the entire process from developing a drug to getting it on the market could go from 15 years to under 5 years.

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