Digital jobs vs Physical jobs

Submitted by CesareGhisa t3_zygpu7 in singularity

I don't understand what you mean saying that all jobs will be executed by ai after the singularity. In my opinion ai will reach a level when it can do any job in the DIGITAL domain. But in the physical world I don't see robots doing everything, at least for centuries or millennia. Can a robot guided by ai do the job of an electrician? a plumber? How much would cost such a type of walking robot? Only job done entirely or almost entirely on a computer will be taken over (lawyers, accountants, clerks in general, banking, office jobs, videogames...). But who will build buildings? Serve in coffee bars? Welcome guests in an hotel? (ok, some bar may use funny walking robots, but most people will still prefer to see a smiling human instead) Give tennis lessons? How many walking robots will be needed to do all physical jobs? millions? billions? Are you sure in 40 years we will be living in a physical world surrounded by millions/billions of robots doing everything? I dont think. For me only all jobs made on a computer are at risk over the next few decades, but not the others performed in the physical world.

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Quealdlor t1_j25wod5 wrote

>for centuries or millennia

Pffff.... you'll see that production of robots will double every 2 years. Robot shipments are currently doubling every 2 years. That's 1000x more robots (all kinds) produced in 2042 than in 2022. Of course robots will do stuff instead of us in 40 years. That's for sure. Even Kurzweil was recently asked that question and he answered that robotics will see a lot of development and improvement over the next 10 years and he's correct about that. See Agility Robotics for an example. There are agricultural and harvesting robots being deployed already. Do you know that for example modern ports are full of robots taking care of shipping containers? And robots change and recharge batteries of the wheeled robots.

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CesareGhisa OP t1_j25xxki wrote

Would be great! I am just thinking at my electrician anyway... the amount of smooth and fine actions he performs.. the level of dexterity in new environments.. the many tools he carries.. Its hard for me to believe that in all houses, in all cities, everywhere, where now work daily thousands, millions of people, will be substituted by an army of walking robots drilling walls, filling pipes with wires, and so on... in just few decades.

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freeman_joe t1_j2630r3 wrote

Some people had a hard time to imagine how would average person use personal computers at home.

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CesareGhisa OP t1_j264qbf wrote

True, and I perfectly know. I cant predict the future. But I still find it hard to believe that in 40 years there will be millions/billions of highly skilled robots (not in terms of knowledge, but of physical dexterity) replacing all human jobs. Its knowledge jobs that are going to be taken over in my opinion.

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freeman_joe t1_j265j79 wrote

Automation can lead to really fast build up of millions of robots. We only need to make first that works and is cheap to produce.

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GenoHuman t1_j2akbjg wrote

look at the Atlas robot from Boston Dynamics, it is almost there dexterity wise already.

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CesareGhisa OP t1_j2avi5d wrote

do you see a world populated by millions of atlas kind of robots in the near future?

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Desperate_Food7354 t1_j25y5ml wrote

I'll take up a new career as a zoo animal in the human zoo.

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mjrossman t1_j28xjy1 wrote

look at the boston dynamics android vs the tesla optimus. creating a robot that can perform physical tasks is far from impossible. creating a fleet of robots to replace all the physical tasks done in a nationwide economy is economically infeasible.

the key distinction is which sector of labor is more scarce. if knowledge work in a digital world is scarce, there's more incentive (i.e. investment) to deploy software at scale. if robotics manufacturing in a physical world is scarce, there's more incentive to stockpile the limiting reagent (usually the chips & minerals).

in terms of timeframe, robotics intelligence is accelerating rapidly. look at RT-1, for example. it's clear that the public domain has already adopted the means to operate robotics, at a hobbyist level, on a global scale. there are a plethora of youtube videos demonstrating this. I suspect that RT will be iterated enough within 5 years to include the capability of self-reproduction. by that point it will not be economically infeasible for independent actors with enough capital to procure their own self-assembling factories with one ML model. the limiting factor will be the raw resources for manufacturing enough robotics to do the physical labor of a given niche.

within 10 years there will be a ML model that convincingly operates an android that instructs/outperforms humans in basic physical tasks. that's the trajectory we're on. it is likely that within 20 years, even specialized physical tasks will be done by android-operating models. before then, I suspect that there is a point of no return with androids playing televised sports. by then the form factor will be a nonissue for industrial purposes.

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CesareGhisa OP t1_j291h63 wrote

great explanation, thanks. this is what I was thinking about. I see everybody talks about ai, but robotics is a different game and I dont read many qualified discussions about it in this singularity subredddit. Most people looks like thinking: when we will have agi, the next day all jobs will be gone.

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AndromedaAnimated t1_j28pm8s wrote

Automation has already gone very far.

Maybe no one will serve in coffee bars as you will just serve yourself, just as it is already done with grocery shopping (here in Germany increasingly). Maybe plumbing will be improved in a way that will not need much maintenance - or what about self-maintenance systems?

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CesareGhisa OP t1_j290o62 wrote

I am not saying we' ll never reach that point. But I am wondering if robotics (not talking about ai) will reach that level and will be widespread in only few decades. We are far away from that at the moment (Roombas can only move in two directions, talking about existing widespread technology).

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CesareGhisa OP t1_j25rwow wrote

This is my first post on Reddit. I have been reading this sub for a while, and really like it. I am excited about the singularity. But I am also interested in putting it in the right perspective.

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CesareGhisa OP t1_j25xuur wrote

Would be great! I am just thinking at my electrician anyway... the amount of smooth and fine actions he performs.. the level of dexterity in new environments.. the many tools he carries.. Its hard for me to believe that in all houses, in all cities, everywhere, where now work daily thousands, millions of people, will be substituted by an army of walking robots drilling walls, filling pipes with wires, and so on... in just few decades.

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7Killumi7 t1_j2820im wrote

The future is wireless… no wires no electricians

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CesareGhisa OP t1_j2867v4 wrote

who will install my oven? my lightnings? my air conditioning system?......

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RikerT_USS_Lolipop t1_j25rmtx wrote

This is weak bait. Look at this guy's account.

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AndromedaAnimated t1_j2913il wrote

I have already noticed that this subreddit prefers older accounts. Do you think this is a good tactic?

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