Gimbloy t1_j1gqgqb wrote on December 24, 2022 at 5:20 AM

Reply to comment by SurroundSwimming3494 in Hype bubble by fortunum

It doesn’t need to be full AGI to be dangerous. As long as it is better than humans in some narrow setting it could be dangerous. Examples: Software companies like Palantir have shown that AI can determine who wins and loses a war, it has allowed Ukraine to outperform a larger country with more military might.

Then there are all the ways it can be used to sway public opinion, propaganda generation, and win in financial markets/financial warfare. And the one I’m particularly afraid of is when it learns to compromise computer systems in a cyber warfare scenario. Just like in a game of Go or chess, where it discovered moves that boggled the minds of experts at the game, I can easily see an AI suddenly gaining root access to any computer network it likes.

SurroundSwimming3494 t1_j1h5ntf wrote on December 24, 2022 at 8:31 AM

I see what you mean.

Saylar t1_j1h78dg wrote on December 24, 2022 at 8:53 AM

To add another point to the list of /u/Gimbloy.

Unemployment: As soon as we have a production ready AI, even a narrow one, we will see massive layoffs. Why wouldn't amazon fire their customer service people once an AI can take over the task of chatting with the customer? The cost of an AI is so much lower than humans doing the job, soon there won't be any jobs left in this particular field, or only very specialized ones. With this, the training and models will get better and the AI can take over even more.

Those entry level jobs are going to go first and where do these people go? Where can they go really? And I doubt it will be the same as the industrial revolution where people will find jobs working machines, I really don't see the majority of customer service reps suddenly working on improving language models.

There are a shitload of examples where this shit can be used and it will be so radically different from what people know, so yeah, we need to sound the alarm bells. The world will start to change radically in the next 5 years is my prediction and we're not ready. Not even remotely. We need to bring the discussion front and center and raise awareness, but I have my doubts about that to be honest. Most politicians can barely use twitter, how are they supposed to legislate something like an AI?

Anyway, happy holdidays :p

SurroundSwimming3494 t1_j1h89fk wrote on December 24, 2022 at 9:08 AM

I can see some jobs going away this decade, but I don't think there'll be significant economic disruption until the 2030's. My overall expectation is that many lines of work will be enhanced by AI/robotics for a long while being they start reducing in size (and by size, I mean workers). I just don't see a jobapocalypse happening this decade like others on this sub.

>The world will start to change radically in the next 5 years is my prediction and we're not ready. Not even remotely.

This is a bit excessive, in my opinion. I'd be willing to bet that the world will look very similar to the way it looks today 5 years from now. Will there be change (both technological and societal) in that time period just like there was change in the last 5 years? Of course there will, but not so much change that the world will look entirely different in that timespan. Change simply doesn't happen that fast.

The world will change, and we need to adjust to that change, but I'm just saying we shouldn't go full on Chicken Little, if you know what I mean.

Saylar t1_j1h9skh wrote on December 24, 2022 at 9:31 AM

Oh, I think we agree on this point. I don't mean we'll see massive layoffs within the next 5 years, but rather real world foundation for all the problems we're talking about here. They won't be just random thoughts and predictions anymore.

It will mostly look the same for the average user, not interested or invested in this technology, but will be vastly different under the hood. And when the foundation is there, change will happen fast. AI will not create nearly as many jobs as it will create, at least I don't see how.

I see it as both real bad and real good, but it depends on how we're using it. With capitalism at the core, I don't see it as particular good chance for most workers. With the way politics work, I don't see them reacting to it fast enough. On the other hand: It's the first time in years that I feel a tiny bit optimistic about climate change (well, combating it) and all the advances in understanding the world around us and ourselves.

I'm mostly on this train to raise awareness for people who have now idea what is currently happening and stay up to date on the developments, because this will be radical change for all of us.