Submitted by natepriv22 t3_zyzmcs in singularity
I saw that it was done in previous years, but it stops at the year 2020.
Could we do something like this again, or am I missing something and it's still going on?
I think it would be really fun, perhaps we can do a predictions tournament as well, and whoever has the most points wins best futurist or something.
Wait a few days and see, /u/kevinmise have been posting a popular end of year prediction thread for a few years now.
Here is last year's Singularity Predictions 2022
I thought I remembered a prediction thread from the beginning of '22? I enjoy the prediction thread and hope that someone starts one for '23.
As far as my prediction, I think domain specific versions of chatgpt (or a similar LLM) will dominate the 2nd half of '23 as a (very) useful productivity booster for many white collar jobs. I think narrow AIs are going to start changing the world before we build a true AGI.
I think those same domain specific (narrow) LLMs are going to start putting people out of work in '24 on a fairly wide scale.
That's just my prediction for the current GPT 3.5 architecture. If GPT 4 is as transformative as many on here hope, we will have a new round of predictions when it gets released with far more ambitious expectations.
If LLMs and other AIs continue to progress like it did in 22 (or even faster if you factor in exponential growth ), then another iteration or two and we will start to see the world tremble, economically socially and politically. The next 3-5 years could completely redefine society and humanity.
It's exciting and terrifying. Perhaps the reason no one has started a prediction thread yet for '23 is that most of us are waiting to see what GPT4 is capable of (considering it should be released early in '23) before making the next round of guesses.
Do you mean post? What is a thread even
I think "thread" = "original post" + " all replies"
Ah .. thank you
[deleted]
Tomorrow noon EST
I'm down. lets do it
>I think those same domain specific (narrow) LLMs are going to start putting people out of work in '24 on a fairly wide scale.
>If LLMs and other AIs continue to progress like it did in 22 (or even faster if you factor in exponential growth ), then another iteration or two and we will start to see the world tremble, economically socially and politically. The next 3-5 years could completely redefine society and humanity.
I'm personally really skeptical that the events that you mentioned will happen in such a short amount of time, but I guess we'll find out in a few years.
[removed]
Zermelane t1_j28l5qx wrote
There have been quite a few posted throughout the last couple of weeks. I liked this AI-focused one.