I thought I remembered a prediction thread from the beginning of '22? I enjoy the prediction thread and hope that someone starts one for '23.

As far as my prediction, I think domain specific versions of chatgpt (or a similar LLM) will dominate the 2nd half of '23 as a (very) useful productivity booster for many white collar jobs. I think narrow AIs are going to start changing the world before we build a true AGI.

I think those same domain specific (narrow) LLMs are going to start putting people out of work in '24 on a fairly wide scale.

That's just my prediction for the current GPT 3.5 architecture. If GPT 4 is as transformative as many on here hope, we will have a new round of predictions when it gets released with far more ambitious expectations.

If LLMs and other AIs continue to progress like it did in 22 (or even faster if you factor in exponential growth ), then another iteration or two and we will start to see the world tremble, economically socially and politically. The next 3-5 years could completely redefine society and humanity.

It's exciting and terrifying. Perhaps the reason no one has started a prediction thread yet for '23 is that most of us are waiting to see what GPT4 is capable of (considering it should be released early in '23) before making the next round of guesses.