Both music and video synthesis will be as advanced as image synthesis is now; text-to-game; GPT-4 will falsely be called AGI (but it might be proto-AGI if the rumors are true); the scaled up Gato will at least be approaching proto-AGI; more AI companies will rightfully focus on multimodality; more automation; greater support for basic income because of the aforementioned automation; the ozone layer will continue healing; computer simulations will significantly improve; "The Singularity is Nearer" will be delayed again as is tradition.

"The Singularity is Nearer" will be delayed again as is tradition - lol this rings true.

The singularity is nearer Will be finished by the first ASI

Bro life will be wild when we can generate videos

Gpt-4 has nothing to do with a general intelligence. It’s just a language model that predicts what to say and generates text based on that. Not a problem solving ai. It can’t get a 100 iq score on an iq test.

Considering that in the last four years we had the 'scary virus pandemic' trope come to life and then 'zombie attack' (I mean Russian z-propaganda), my bets oscillate between Skynet awakening, Yellowstone eruption, and Chitauri falling from the sky.

2022 will seem very slow about ai progress when we were at the end of the 2023

True, we will definitely more and better Deepfake filter. Otherwise more chaos in society, as disinformation will become an even bigger problem, then it is right now already.

Oh, your working on the project?

It'll basically be an arms race. The better that deepfake detection gets, the more refined the generators are going to get. It's going to be a WILD ride for the beginning of this takeoff. Hopefully we just go through some awkward teenage years while we learn that the world will never be the same.

At some point during next year, a proto-AGI will be developed and subsequently after its creation in a relatively short time period (anywhere from a day to a few months), that proto-AGI will hit a "tripwire" event at which point it becomes proficient in all the areas needed to self improve recursively thus quickly becoming ASI.

The second AI begins to vastly outpace our intelligence everything changes, that is in essence the singularity.

this change will be so sudden it will actually give you mental whiplash.

prediction over :)

Integration of long-term memory and transformers. It will allow to reduce the size of transformer network. So, GATO successor will advance from slow robotic control to OKish robotic control and it will drop your bottle of beer with 1-5% probability, instead of 20% (or so) now. No, still not AGI as it will have limited lifelong learning (if any).

GPT-4 will be more of everything: better general knowledge, longer coherence, less hallucinations, better code generation, better translation, improved logical thinking (more so with "let's do it step by step" prompt) and so on and so forth. All in all, great evolutionary development of GPT-3 and ChatGPT, but no revolution yet.

Generative models will continue to improve. I wouldn't expect high-quality, high-resolution, non-trippy video in 2023 though. Maybe we'll get decent temporal consistency on a limited number of subjects that were specifically pretrained. Music synthesis probably will not advance much (due to expected backlash from music labels).

Neural networks based on neural differential equations may give rise to more dexterous and faster to train robots, but the range of tasks they can perform will be limited.

Maybe we'll see large language models with "internal monologue" module. I can't predict their capabilities and whether researchers will be comfortable going in this direction as those are getting dangerously close to "self-aware territory" with all of its dangers and ethical problems.

We are asymptotically approaching the singularity is nearer release date.

What does that have to do with anything? I’m just stating a fact that gpt-4 doesn’t have thinking capacity and not an iq. It just a language model that creates text which it learned from a large variety of data like books, Wikipedia, web articles etc. Is this really all you have to say?

Ps: I can’t believe this community is so childish to downvote me because i crushed their little optimism ego. Some of y’all really are just some npc’s with no thinking capacity sometimes, a lot like gpt-4 actually.

I actually don't think you understand large language models very well, the human brain is almost structurally isomorphic to a stimulus prediction model if you think about it. And basically every stimulus can be encoded in text.

My general range is 5-10 years. Next year's breakthroughs are already prototyped and carry much greater secrecy, but I'll have a go. These are on or before end of 2023:

1. Google will announce an entertainment division that will be mostly AI-based content.
2. The US military will announce a completely crewless capital ship or submarine.
3. CAR-T will become the fastest-growing treatment for cancer.
4. Autonomous electric trucks will be fleet vehicles in mainline service with at least one mainline logistics company in Europe.
5. Large-language model derivatives will cause a major rethink in the format and process of academic publishing across virtually all journals.
6. A major nation--perhaps Korea or Japan or France will require all medical diagnostics to be reviewed by an AI.
7. Trains will be produced to be driven without crews.
8. Airbus will announce plans for an aircraft that will have no functioning flight crew--merely fall-back status for humans.
9. NASA will announce plans to build a drone/robotic deep space station to facilitate trips to Mars and beyond.
10. Humanoid robots will be used in policing.
11. A full-length feature production will show at major movie theatres conceived, designed and made exclusively by AI.
12. AI will write songs that enter the top 10 in sales--though performed by humans.
13. AI will write a critically acclaimed novel.
14. Most major car companies will announce their future is exclusively electric vehicles and that they will be largely on-demand autonomous by 2030.
15. Governments will announce smart pylons that enable any device to know the exact time and location of the beacon signal from the pylons. These will become common place--perhaps on city light polls.
16. Governments will announce smart pylons that enable any device to know the exact time and location of the beacon signal from the pylons. These will become commonplace--perhaps on city light polls.
17. Universities will begin to reform teaching programs to drive costs lower by using at-home/AI methods to teach most basic STEM courses--e.g. Calculus, chemistry, physics, etc.

The human brain has something called logic, which the language models don’t have. Logic is literally what intelligence is all about. It doesn’t matter that prediction models work the same as our brain, it has nothing to do with gpt-4 being intelligent.

My prediction that VR will be as big as the iPhone in 2007 did not look good this year. VR progress has been much slower than anticipated and meta hasn’t really played their cards right. Regardless it’s still 2 years away so a lot can change and some progress was still made.

In terms of AI more progress was made than I had anticipated. Whilst I expected GPT-4 to be out by now, I was blown away by the progress in art generation. I expected it would be a year until open source image generators competed with Dall-E 2 but only a few months after stable diffusion was released and now it’s better than Dall-e 2 in many aspects. I see AI generated art everywhere and I’m just blown away by how quickly it has improved. Self driving has been about where I expected it so nothing really to say there.

UE5 has also been mind blowing. Both ray tracing and polygon rendering has improved a ton with technology like nanite. The games on it look amazing however we’ll have to wait a couple years for games to be developed for it to see its full potential. Definitely higher than my expectations for sure.

Government developments have been about where I expected in most developments (infrastructure, finance etc). Little developments have been made towards AI by most governments. The one big exception was the China chip manufacturing ban by the US government which really took me by surprise. It definitely goes to show that countries such as the US and China have really seen the potential in AI and have begun making changes, even if it’s behind the scenes.

My predictions about hardware developments have roughly been right but I’m still disappointed. Progress in hardware has really slowed down, and if the 4090 has shown us anything it’s that we really are reaching the limit on how efficient we can make transistors. Although this was what I expected I still find it disappointing. Hopefully quantum computers or the like will be viable. If not I still think we’ve got a long way to go on software optimization.

Finally energy use. Due to the war in Ukraine I think many countries have begun focusing on renewable energy more than I predicted. Fusion progress seems to be faster than I expected but I don’t want to get too optimistic because it always seems like progress is being made with no results.

So that’s my predictions for everything. Overall a bit more progress was made than I expected.

Number 6 seems really far fetched to me. Maybe they might encourage it but I can't see them requiring it.

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I can see these industries moving towards such direction, but when thinking of all the immensely bureaucratic processes needed for these to happen, I would say half a decade is a good, albeit not an optimistic estimate

reasonable

I hope you’re correct :)

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That has got to be the dumbest argument I’ve ever read.

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Ok, that has got to be the dumbest response I’ve ever read.

Do you predict that gpt4 will pass the turing test?

I think there's a good chance that GPT-4 will indeed pass the Turing test.

I really hope 6 is true. I think AI would be the best thing to happen in the medical field. Unfortunately, humans are just too flawed to be doctors imo. They make a lot of mistakes and can misdiagnose pretty often. Also the first few seems plausible but the second half is way too far-fetched imo