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Baron_Samedi_ t1_j1w1cui wrote

Reply to comment by sourcec0p in Considering the recent advancements in AI, is it possible to achieve full-dive in the next 5-10 years? by Burlito2

In 5 - 10 years? No chance.

First the "pessimistic" outlook:

  • Neural research is nowhere near far enough along for us to achieve that;

  • there is no existing technology that could achieve that;

  • R&D for the requisite technology could happen within 5 - 10 years, but

  • it would be at least 15 years before any useful products that enable lucid dreaming which can compete with even existing VR to hit the market.

Next, the more encouraging outlook:

  • Our brains have the ideal hardware and level of computational power to give us deep dive VR. As your comment implies, dreams already provide a convincing simulation of reality.

  • All of our actual experiences are ultimately rendered in our brains.

  • The idea you are suggesting is an excellent route to the most satisfying possible simulated reality experience.

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BaronDerpsalot t1_j1x6wsx wrote

We can already train ourselves to lucid dream. Wouldn't something along the neuralink lines be able to measure what triggers that, and encourage similar patterns relatively soon?

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Baron_Samedi_ t1_j1yk207 wrote

Something like Neuralink could get us improved mind maps, but neuralink is not even close to being viable, at this time.

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mootcat t1_j1w7ocx wrote

I take it you believe there is a 0% chance of AGI in a decade then? All bets are off once we achieve AGI.

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Baron_Samedi_ t1_j1yjvxj wrote

That is not easy to say, but I am doubtful.

Regardless, AGI might not even be necessary to achieve full dive VR within 15 years.

It is important to note that teams of humans are already pretty darn smart. We can already work wonders, when we put enough good minds on the job.

Also important to note that AGI can't source and mine raw materials or manufacture and ship goods faster than we can now.

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Villad_rock t1_j1yjbos wrote

But what if we have agi in 10 years?

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Baron_Samedi_ t1_j1yktat wrote

If we have AGI in 10 years, we will still need to research, develop, and build to scale better brain imaging technology, just to figure out what tech we would need to create in order to achieve brain-based simulations that can compete with advanced machine-based simulations - and that does not happen over night.

AGI would be more likely to lead to better digital/quantum computer simulations, reducing the incentives for any intrusive wetware tech - perhaps until nanotech is far enough along that we can inject nanobots into our brains that are capable of inducing lucid dreams. (And then you have to ask who is likely to give a corporation permission to manipulate your brain to such a powerful extent. I mean, if think you hate Spotify commercials now...)

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