Kaarssteun t1_j1uvhga wrote
Reply to comment by ihateshadylandlords in Considering the recent advancements in AI, is it possible to achieve full-dive in the next 5-10 years? by Burlito2
FDVR is ASI + 3 months. I don't think we as humans are capable of the technical feat - especially before AI.
Baron_Samedi_ t1_j1w2245 wrote
ASI + 3 months? That is some kind of magical thinking that ignores real world challenges like logistics chains and large scale manufacturing.
It doesn't matter how smart your computer is. Somebody has to mine and/or manufacture components, ship them to where they are needed, develop the factories where they are produced, hire contractors and workers to do all that stuff, develop and market the products at all levels...
Kaarssteun t1_j1w28a8 wrote
ASI being superhuman by definition, it will find a way around those.
AsheyDS t1_j1wt9gt wrote
ASI isn't magic. And there will always be real-world limitations.
SerdarCS t1_j1wothj wrote
It's still bound by the laws of physics though
Baron_Samedi_ t1_j1ymler wrote
Yup. This is what the ASI enthusiasts keep ignoring. ASI is not an infinity gauntlet. Simply being superintelligent does not mean you can overcome the laws of physics - or global politics, or economics, for that matter - with a snap of your fingers.
Kaarssteun t1_j1yxkx5 wrote
Im not saying it will break the physical laws per se - but it really might. Everything we know, we know with our human intelligence, which will be surpassed. A dog might think his master never runs out of food, that may be a "law" in his mental world, yet it is painfully obvious to us humans that it's wrong.
imlaggingsobad t1_j1wmz1m wrote
the ASI will be able to theoretically solve FDVR, and can show it working in a life-like simulation. Doesn't even need to rely on supply chains or manufacturing lead times.
Villad_rock t1_j1yjjnn wrote
Humans won’t do anything of that and when everything is autonomous and you have basically slave robots everything happens quiet fast.
Why should you even market the products? With asi every lvl of marketing doesn’t exist anymore, the market economy and capitalism won’t exist anymore.
Baron_Samedi_ t1_j1ynm4u wrote
ASI is not an infinity gauntlet, my dude.
There are still many hurdles you need to overcome to bring new technology to the masses - physical, economic, and geopolitical - and they aren't overcome with the snap of our superintelligent fingers.
Who is building robots to mine raw materials, transport them, manufacture them into something the ASI can use? Who is cutting through the bureaucratic red tape to get trade agreements for those materials sorted out? Which as yet non-existent factories are building those slave bots?
The market economy and capitalism aren't going away in an eyeblink, just because superintelligent machines appear on the scene. The complex dynamic systems of civilization - bounded by the hard laws of phsysics and the soft-but-often-inflexible rules of culture, politics, commerce, and social bodies - would break down catastrophically, if that occured.
An ASI might not at all consider human desires a priority worth focusing on. It could, instead of building robots, source its labor from its very capable inventors: humanity.
How hard would it be for an ASI to brick all of our modern farm equipment until we agree to obey its every whim?
Villad_rock t1_j23ulfi wrote
Maybe not in 3 month but it will still happen incredible fast and in a blink of an eye.
The first robots and machines are build by humans and everything else is then done by those robots and machines who will be the builders.
Look how fast everything was build in the last 100 years. All those cities, skyscrapers, underground systems, machines, cars, trains, cables with just human builders.
Dubai 20 years ago was just a desert.
When we have asi in 1 year the world will already be unrecognizable.
JadeX013 t1_j1v9hi9 wrote
that's just for the games, we need to understand the human brain and specifically the parts that control dreams for perfect assimilation. we'd also need insanely good internet connection, and even more time to make all of those commercially available. so fdvr is a long way off imo. it's a bit sad that I was born too early to have those things in my teens.
Apollo24_ t1_j1vanex wrote
Why the parts controlling dreams? Genuinely asking, I've never considered that to be of importance. Sending image data to the occipital lobe as well as other sensory data to the respective parts would enable a much more realistic experience than a dream, and similarly reading motor actions for movement no?
JadeX013 t1_j1vbggi wrote
I mean we don't really have much range of motion when we're awake, but if we're asleep we wouldn't have to be limited by space. but I do see your point, that's a much quicker milestone and probably a necessary step if we ever reach the point of fdvr in dreams
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