DukkyDrake t1_j1fyvi9 wrote
Reply to comment by Nervous-Newt848 in Am I the only one on this sub that believes AI actually will bring more jobs (especially in tech)? by raylolSW
There is 1 limiting factor, economics. If AGI running a McDonalds is more expensive than a poorly educated human, the human will still have a job frying burgers. If every random person can run a bootleg AGI algo on their beefed-up desktop, economics won't be a huge limiting factor, it will be access to raw materials. But that outcome will likely be an existential threat.
Ortus12 t1_j1g5w5e wrote
Energy costs trend towards zero, so the Ai itself will not be a cost issue. The robots might be a cost issue depending on their materials in the short term. Ai is working in material science already, and will be working on optimizing manufacturing and distribution pipelines so I don't know how long that will last.
If Telsa Bot (or competitors) is 20K when it comes out, and it last 5 years, with an average of 1K a year on repairs (done by other tesla bots), then it could replace all humans making more than 5K a year. Assuming these bots are physically capable and as intelligent as a human.
Food costs will also come down so I'm not sure how this will work out. It's possible, that because Ai's are smarter than humans, but humans are already around and don't yet require a manufacturing cost to the ASI's, that we will all have hats or vests with cameras and little ear plugs telling us what to do all day long, and if we are fired or not.
DukkyDrake t1_j1idk99 wrote
It's possible. But you should consider the fact human labor isn't usually the largest % of retail prices. (e.g., You might pay ~$0.57/lb for potatoes in Austin TX, ~$0.12/lb goes to the farmer.) Grocery stores labor costs is around ~14% of sales.
There is a factory in Japan that operates lights out, no human workers. Robots do all of the work; the factory happens to manufacture robots. These robots made by other robots are expensive. The entire chain isn't automated, they don't make the semiconductors etc in their robots, but my point is that companies make products to sell for the maximum price the market can bear and not the cheapest. Although manufacture/labor cost doesn't determine the price, automation does lower the cost of goods and services.
Ortus12 t1_j1ij3ym wrote
That's true. Food prices probably won't come down much.
It looks like food prices were going down but reached diminishing returns and then flatlined and probably won't go much lower than they were in 1990.
https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/gallery/chart-detail/?chartId=76964
I'm not sure what you mean by expensive robots. At the moment flippy the robot that makes fries cost 3.5K a month for jack in the box to rent. You can buy it for 30K. It also grills burgers, fries and onions rings.
I'm realizing that the most cost effective robot for different tasks, is not a full humanoid robot with legs and fingers (unless that humanoid robot is produced at scale, I don't know). Our world could fill up gradually with many robots. So certain jobs that are harder to automate (plumper/repair man) will probably be safe from robots for a while.
DukkyDrake t1_j1ilas7 wrote
That example is just a long existing manufacturer of industrial robots, demonstrating products aren't necessarily super cheap just because their production is as maximally automated as permitted by economic concerns.
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