DukkyDrake t1_j1f7kkr wrote
No, you're not. It will bring more jobs long before it can do everything. People use more of a given good or service the cheaper it gets. AI will deliver serfdom to the tech workers and make them no better off than the avg unskilled laborer after mechanization.
> before the Industrial Revolution 90% of people were farmers.
The reasons people found other work was because a tractor or a combine couldn't do those other jobs. A tractor could plow the fields, but it couldn't become an accountant. An automated intelligence could operate a tractor and serve as an accountant.
Nervous-Newt848 t1_j1flgze wrote
Precisely, the invention of AGI robots and AGI software is something way beyond the scope of the Industrial Revolution...
I have a feeling OP doesn't even really understand what AGI is...
AGI is basically AI that can learn to do any task a human can... ANY!!
So lets use some common sense here, AGI can replace pretty much every human job there is.
This is not the creation of a machine that can reduce the amount of workers... This is the creation of a machine that can replace ALL WORKERS
InvisibleWrestler t1_j1ft5wj wrote
We don't even need AGI at this point to do that. Most jobs (emphasis on most) that can be done sitting in front of a computer can be done by something like chatGPT3 or GPT 4. Or atleast make one worker productive enough to drastically reduce the number of employees.
Similarly self driving and other similar automation may be able to reduce physical labour jobs but that's most likely going to require AGI and advanced robotics.
At this point white collar office workers seem easier to automate than even bus and truck drivers.
Also, once this wave of automation starts in offices, "bullshit jobs" will be wiped out.
DukkyDrake t1_j1fyvi9 wrote
There is 1 limiting factor, economics. If AGI running a McDonalds is more expensive than a poorly educated human, the human will still have a job frying burgers. If every random person can run a bootleg AGI algo on their beefed-up desktop, economics won't be a huge limiting factor, it will be access to raw materials. But that outcome will likely be an existential threat.
Ortus12 t1_j1g5w5e wrote
Energy costs trend towards zero, so the Ai itself will not be a cost issue. The robots might be a cost issue depending on their materials in the short term. Ai is working in material science already, and will be working on optimizing manufacturing and distribution pipelines so I don't know how long that will last.
If Telsa Bot (or competitors) is 20K when it comes out, and it last 5 years, with an average of 1K a year on repairs (done by other tesla bots), then it could replace all humans making more than 5K a year. Assuming these bots are physically capable and as intelligent as a human.
Food costs will also come down so I'm not sure how this will work out. It's possible, that because Ai's are smarter than humans, but humans are already around and don't yet require a manufacturing cost to the ASI's, that we will all have hats or vests with cameras and little ear plugs telling us what to do all day long, and if we are fired or not.
DukkyDrake t1_j1idk99 wrote
It's possible. But you should consider the fact human labor isn't usually the largest % of retail prices. (e.g., You might pay ~$0.57/lb for potatoes in Austin TX, ~$0.12/lb goes to the farmer.) Grocery stores labor costs is around ~14% of sales.
There is a factory in Japan that operates lights out, no human workers. Robots do all of the work; the factory happens to manufacture robots. These robots made by other robots are expensive. The entire chain isn't automated, they don't make the semiconductors etc in their robots, but my point is that companies make products to sell for the maximum price the market can bear and not the cheapest. Although manufacture/labor cost doesn't determine the price, automation does lower the cost of goods and services.
Ortus12 t1_j1ij3ym wrote
That's true. Food prices probably won't come down much.
It looks like food prices were going down but reached diminishing returns and then flatlined and probably won't go much lower than they were in 1990.
https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/gallery/chart-detail/?chartId=76964
I'm not sure what you mean by expensive robots. At the moment flippy the robot that makes fries cost 3.5K a month for jack in the box to rent. You can buy it for 30K. It also grills burgers, fries and onions rings.
I'm realizing that the most cost effective robot for different tasks, is not a full humanoid robot with legs and fingers (unless that humanoid robot is produced at scale, I don't know). Our world could fill up gradually with many robots. So certain jobs that are harder to automate (plumper/repair man) will probably be safe from robots for a while.
DukkyDrake t1_j1ilas7 wrote
That example is just a long existing manufacturer of industrial robots, demonstrating products aren't necessarily super cheap just because their production is as maximally automated as permitted by economic concerns.
Equivalent-Ice-7274 t1_j1g5isz wrote
Having AGI doesn’t mean we will have the hardware to create human equivalent robots. The human hand is absolutely amazing, with it’s strength to size ratio, it’s speed and it’s dexterity. We have nothing even close to that, so many jobs will require humans for a while.
Nervous-Newt848 t1_j1hf0gr wrote
Look up robot hands... We have plenty of things close to that...
Honestly you dont really even need a human hand to do most tasks... As long as a robotic arm can move and hold a tool it can do several things...
We already have robots in Tesla factories and Amazon warehouses... Tesla bot is going to change everything in my opinion... But itll take years to be released
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