Trade jobs don't happen in a vacuum, which is the hard part of automating them. To get a robot plumber to join two pieces of pipe in a lab is EASY. To get that same robot to go into your house, find the main water valve and shut off the water, cut out sheet rock, drill holes in the appropriate places through existing framing without compromising the structure, slope the pipe correctly, etc. AND do it all to building code is HARD.

The reason they'll probably be some of the last jobs to be automated is that the job includes a lot of variety in the individual tasks, most tasks require both highly functioning robotics and high intelligence AI, and current labor isn't paid that highly.

Literally none of those things require AGI. I think an advanced enough AI would be able to do that and again robotics is advancing and I think getting to that level of robotics will be much sooner than you would like to think.

I know you really want to keep your job but you can't wish this progress away.

Why won't the robot go through the pipe and join it from the inside?

Most of this is cost. Robotics is easier in a standardized environment. Humans will, for a time, be better at one-off speciality stuff. But the cost variance to have "custom" will be 10-fold. Humans are stupidly expensive. That's why robots win. Not because they are at first better, but because they are nearly always hugely cheaper. They don't get tired. They only get better. They don't have mental breakdowns, get old, or go postal. And they get an upgrade in skills every 30 days. Hard to compete.

I believe with advanced AI and humans researching robotics in the future combined with more financial incentive will make Robotics cheaper and viable for specialty stuff.

I don't believe in exponential progress but I believe it does get faster quick and Robotics isn't an exception to this rule.

I'm guessing you've not worked on hardware platforms before. They do, indeed, get old. They break, sometimes fairly quickly. They will need to be maintained for their entire lifespan.

As a profession artist and owner of a trade repair company I have to disagree. Agree: yes. One day it can happen. Disagree: 80% of commercial art jobs will be replaced in particular low hanging fruit. Most articles can just generate a “good enough” piece to suit their needs. Product photography will disappear completely. Echo cal artists will go. There may be some left o. The high end but it will be more of ai writer. Hell, corporate web copy is almost completely ai generated for smaller companies.

But. I need to repair the fault on an elevator. Unless there is a built in system to self diagnose (and the have no real reason to do so) external diagnosis is difficult. Then to manipulate the current systems would embolden high levels of dexterity through multiple passenger safety systems. Then determine to location and means of access which can vary extensively. As well as maintain the system for public safety. Once accessed fine motor manipulation as well as continued diagnostics. And that doesn’t take into account that there are several dozen different systems per several dozen different manufacturers that intentionally cause obsolescence.

Will it happen? Sure. Maybe. 50-100 years. We are more likely to have ai deal with resource management and design than repair.

As a professional artist (past life) and owner of a trade repair company I have to disagree. Agree: yes. One day it can happen. Disagree: 80% of commercial art jobs will be replaced in particular low hanging fruit. Most articles can just generate a “good enough” piece to suit their needs. Product photography will disappear completely. Echo cal artists will go. There may be some left o. The high end but it will be more of ai writer. Hell, corporate web copy is almost completely ai generated for smaller companies.

But. I need to repair the fault on an elevator. Unless there is a built in system to self diagnose (and the have no real reason to do so) external diagnosis is difficult. Then to manipulate the current systems would embolden high levels of dexterity through multiple passenger safety systems. Then determine to location and means of access which can vary extensively. As well as maintain the system for public safety. Once accessed fine motor manipulation as well as continued diagnostics. And that doesn’t take into account that there are several dozen different systems per several dozen different manufacturers that intentionally cause obsolescence.

Will it happen? Sure. Maybe. 50-100 years. We are more likely to have ai deal with resource management and design than repair.

I think you're underestimating the amount of different existing conditions that a trade person would come across, especially for rehab work in an existing building. You're interfacing with things that could have been installed over 100 years ago, of all kinds of materials, and if you do it wrong there is a huge risk to safety and property.

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While I do think AI will replace ALL jobs, I think these types of jobs will be some of the last to go. I also think that AI will replace the new construction trade jobs first since it will be easier to do the job in a more controlled environment.

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I'm an engineer, not a trade person, and I think my job will be automated well before the trades do.

It would cost more for the plumber to set up/put a robot in the pipe than to just do the work

You are just stating things you think is hard for AI to replace. You sound like a trade person since you are defending it so much but I will assume you aren't lying for good faith.

Trade will be replaced before artists because you don't need human level AI for trade jobs to be replaced just advanced robotics and a sufficient AI.

Bro, you'll see. Artists won't be replaced because once AI image generators become viable they'll only change how a lot of art will be made. 50-100 years sounds like a big cope to me dear friend. I'd say 30-40 years.

They aren’t safe from automation because no job is. They won’t be some of the first to go though they’ll be near the back. Most people who think trades are easily replaced just have no clue what goes into working in the trades.

Trades aren't easily replaced but they can be replaced. With AI progress going at it's rate as well as robotics going with the AI progress once it kicks off. You guys are fucked. Your ego is the only reason you can't fathom an AI replacing you in like 40 years you think it is centuries away but that is not the case.

Robotics is advancing but not as fast as ai. Not only that but hardware takes significantly longer to implement than software. Even if they had perfect robots in the lab today it would take time to roll them out and produce them for the entire industry to be automated. You seem to be the one with an ego as an artist hoping you won’t be replaced by ai until ahi arrives. Also no one stated it would take centuries you’re making up false narratives in that puny brain of yours.

AI replacing jobs comes down to economics. Is it cheaper to develop an AI/Robot to do a certain task than it is to just have humans continue to do it? Then it's ripe for automation. The jobs to target first are ones that are expensive, tedious/repetitive, easier to be done by a machine. We've already started automating jobs that machines are good at (think bank tellers, manufacturing, etc.).

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My own personal opinion is that the physical robotics will prove to be harder to do well than computer AI, and that automating jobs that use a combination of both AI and physical robotics will be the hardest.

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Also, you don't need human level AI to replace most artists. Have you seen some of the image generator AIs right now?

You seem to be really stuck on the idea of people being replaced, but even in art we won't be replaced, the job is just going to change irreversibly.

Just like how I use NAI and Midjourney in almost all my work now I'm sure plumbers will end up having a whole suite of tools that let them direct an operation that would otherwise need a crew of 50 men, but you're so obviously ignorant of the sheer volume of tasks and the necessity to manage them all properly that I wouldn't listen to your predictions to begin with.

Yeah, one day, 200 years from now all plumbing will be done by robotics, likely following a construction revolution that will standardize things even more than they already are. Hell, I imagine it'll be much sooner than that, even within our lifetimes, but you're underestimating the volume and complexity of the tasks you're talking about and thus speaking with extreme arrogance about something you clearly cannot accurately predict.

>Robotics is advancing but not as fast as ai

That isn't my claim, I said it will advance faster once AI supports both it's research and development.

>Even if they had perfect robots in the lab today it would take time to roll them out and produce them for the entire industry to be automated

It will happen though, especially when you see how useful it will be.

>You seem to be the one with an ego as an artist hoping you won’t be replaced by ai until ahi arrives

No not really it is the truth, let me explain. AI-generated imagery as it stands is a flat collage of input, humans are the ones that get it to make images kinda like a tool. For AI to replace artists it would have to make art reflecting a three-dimensional trajectory through references of sociocultural, psychological, and spatial properties. It reflects a distinct form, and this is originality. Basically it would need to be at human level.

Face it, "go to trade school" is the new "learn how to code" meme. You will be replaced whether you like it or not.

The thing is that it will eventually be made cheaper. That is how automation works. In the future once robots are cheap enough to replace trade jobs then the trade people will be replaced. I'm sorry if you don't wanna hear it that is just the truth.

Yes you do need human level AI. You seem very uneducated when it comes to synthetic media in general. Humans are the ones who use the AI to make the images kinda like using a pencil. Once AI image generators become viable which I'm guessing will happen in 8-12 years. Then it will be normalized as a tool like any other. A AI who have to be human level to independently create art like a human does with all the complexity that it requires. AHI is long ways off 60-150 years.

We won't be replaced obviously because it requires AHI. Only job will change in a massive way though, I'm not ready for it personally. It will be the biggest change the art world has ever seen.

But the thing is creativity is a skill and in art you need both technical skill and creative skill. AI may get rid of the technical part but the creative skill is still needed. It is hard for me to get a good idea so obviously artists won't be replaced or obsolete people will still need creative people to make the art they didn't even know they wanted.

I'd say 30-40 years all plumbing will be done by robotics. It only requires an AI that knows plumbing and a sufficient body which will be much easier than people think.

Dude everyone will be replaced. Let’s just cut this game out. Even though I’m well positioned. I recognize we are all fucked lol

I don’t believe all art. Just low hanging fruit. The bottom 80%. He’ll, even I have pulled a few quick images for articles. Having been in the commercial art field since the ruby days and still doing high end drone photography and corporate brochures and ads I already see it eating away some work.

I err on the long side due to need vs cost savings. Development of a safe and reliable AI system for home or commercial plumbing that take the job fully is way off. What I anticipate is AI companion with AR glasses. It will start with new construction jobs that are designed for them. The 30-50 is to account for the degradation of current facilities. I still have units we maintain that are over 60 years old with 60 years of undocumented modifications and repairs. 30 year old units from companies that have been out of business after install.

Companion systems that reduce the number of technicians maybe. But not full removal.

“Ingenuity”, it is hard to define, and therefore hard to replicate.

The job of a plumber nowadays, for example, requires some things that are hard to automate/replace. This won’t be the case when people live in standardized housing.

For as long as the cost of replacing the level of ingenuity required is higher than the benefit of “automation” (which by the way is only a very discrete form of AI) those jobs are going to be fine.

For a job to ge replaced all it’s necessary is that AI becomes more affordable than human exploitation.

Artists are already being replaced by computer programs. One guy and some software can already accomplish what used to take a team of hundreds. Unless we all embrace socialism your worth is only determined by the demands for your labor, and artists are REALLY REALLY replaceable. More technology and automation are going to need MORE maintenance, but you know what robots aren't going to need? Artists

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Sad the politicians would be last. I'd love to see representatives replaced by an AI that simply figures out what most people want in the district and the vote is just a calculation.

There wouldn't be a human, plumber or otherwise, involved. My point is that a robot plumber does not have to do a job the same way as a human one, thus eliminating or simplifying complicated procedures. Also I think your cost comparison is based on how you think the job would be done with today's technology, not how it would be done with the future's.

Dude, spend time doing a trade they won’t be plumbing

Seriously, not going to be doing any plumbing.

Every job will be replaced (or change dramatically) on a long enough timescale. That's always true.

The question is the timescale. I believe many blue collar jobs are in fact safe for a while, because humans will be better at those jobs for some time yet. (A decade or two?)

For example, I recently needed a semi-truck trailer refrigeration unit fixed overnight. This involved a technician climbing around the opened unit (a combination of diesel engine and HVAC unit) and physically doing diagnostics, electrical and mechanical checking, pulling and replacing bad parts, "get your hands dirty" technical work.

I find it difficult to imagine even the most advanced currently-existing robot or AI to do this work. That would be deep sci-fi territory. Or at some point this type of mechanism won't be around to need repair, but there are millions of them. They aren't disappearing overnight.

This is not true of every blue collar job. It is likely true of some, or many. Regardless, many changes are coming.

And you sound like an artist trying to defend why artists will not be replaced and trade will be, lol.

And here I am, a non artist, who already are using the current AI to replace all my needs of an artist and it gets better by the month while ai still.are nowhere near even to begin being useful in the trades.

Dude. Do you build anything? The complexity involved. I nean if they can pull off c3po robots soon, sure. K. And at that point, I would gladly give up my job. Robotics, maintaining and programming them would be the go to job though. Ai artwork replacing human artwork? I'm not sure how a robot doing artwork will help me express the emotions in my soul. Edit for clarification

Automation has a horrible track record when it comes to replacing the jobs we think it’s going to replace. We do not have robot maids or butlers after all. However there is currently an unprecedented rise in the digitization of everything. Having that data is not the same thing as automation but it is a prerequisite.

Training data. Much harder to collect data about blue collar work than everything digital, including ding art.

Blue collar work will be the last to go.

You are coping hard. The guy is right.

Before AI and robotics merge to a point where they are precise and efficient enough (and cheap enough) to tackle the diversity of on-site scenarios of many trades, most OTHER jobs will have been automated.

What you might see is more pre-built houses, for exemple, that are designed to be worked on by robots because they are made to be predictable and fit with AI trained on their models.

But most current buildings and infrastructure haven't been built with robot maintenance in mind. Sometime they're barely built with human access in mind lol. So if we assume infrastructure last 50-100 years depending on the type, that's probably the time scale of trade job relative "safety".

Until AGI obviously. Then anything goes. Either human emancipation from work or slavery to the machine overlords :/

This guy has it.🔨

> It is in it's infancy so it is right now a worse tool than a pencil but even when it is just as good as the others it will only be a tool for people to make art

If you look what you can make with dall-e right now its already very good. It can make much better then things then i can ever make myself (cant draw for shit).

Dont have to be fucked aslong as the benefits of automation get shared equally. If the benefits only go to the factory owners then yes we will have a few ultra wealthy and the rest of us are all poor useless schmucks.

Sir, I’m a young man looking for a blue collar job and it’s very hard to find. Please don’t tell me it won’t be safe in the future, I will be fucking worthless.

You guys are thinking bottom-up. To predict AI/robotic's impact you have to think from the perspective of market drivers, costs and competition. Companies that compete will do whatever it takes to stay competitive. Manufacturing in particular, is obviously going to transition fastest. Also, in service businesses, there are micro tasks that get automated. These market drivers push automation and AI development. Investors can drive some, but in the end, there has to be a market. So, automation spreads along the paths of least resistance, or greatest return on investment. Automated vehicles, home automation, customer services.

So, there will be points along the curve of the AI's intelligence and robotic dexterity, cost and efficiency, at which you can say, what skills can this do more efficiently than humans, given total cost of ownership (build, train, maintain, power). Obviously, with above-human intelligence AND robots that can do any task a human can, it's game over.

The question is, along that curve there will be increasing disruption, and gradual but accelerating macroeconomic effects. Companies will evolve or die. People will adapt or end up homeless. The homeless will probably be given welfare. Drugs and crime will run rampant. There will be an industry to contain the growing homeless. It will probably involve robotic police. In the end, the upper layer will merge with the AI and the billions of displaced will just be contained. In 100 years they will die off mostly. The AI will build gleaming cities and expand to interstellar space.

That is, if we don't have AI wars. If we do, AI+robotics accelerates outside market forces. The dominant AI will know how to exterminate us ... and it will.

You are in denial if you believe AI image generation is just a tool. A five year old could use it and come up with professional quality images. AI is a replacement.

And art was considered an unstable career path before AI as well. Theres very little barrier to entry and a lot of hobbyists are as good as professionals. It's not like Dalle flipped its perception or anything. There is absolutely no way it'll be replaced last. I don't think it's been seen as a viable career path for everyone since the 1800s.

'My 5 year old could have painted that'.

Yeah but they didn't.

Art is about emotion. Text prompted AI generated images are the opposite of that.

A 5 year old could type in 'Beautiful oil painting style, girl with a pearl earring, high resolution.' , but who gives a shit?

What emotion and intention does that convey? Nobody looks at an AI image and feels the artist's joy or pain. It's completely superficial.

Yeah, communism will make everyone "equal". We've seen how well that works.

I own a design/build firm and I completely disagree, yes the Ai art tools are currently just tools but that’s like saying “this cnc machine won’t replace everyone cutting intricate parts by hand” yes the fuck it will. We do industrial design, pretty big clients in the outdoor industry. We have completely quit doing ALL industrial design work and pivoted to design/build in the architectural millwork arena. We feel like there is much more stability in this field than the previous. The tasks that are required in install and fabrication are just too varied for a simple robot to pull off. If I were to guess about any field of construction to be automated it would likely start with excavating, already has. Let’s not forgot about exporting our labor, now people can operate equipment from South Africa for $1.60/hr.

Who was talking about communism. But even then that would be preferable to a distopian society where we would all be slaves begging for scraps to a few ultra rich overlords in control of the world trough their robot Workforce/armies

Do you mean the remote human operator is located in South Africa, while the physical equipment sits in the US (or another country)?

Yup, exactly.