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Rumianti6 OP t1_iy0u6ep wrote

Reply to comment by ZombieClaus in Why Blue collar jobs won't be safe from automation by Rumianti6

Literally none of those things require AGI. I think an advanced enough AI would be able to do that and again robotics is advancing and I think getting to that level of robotics will be much sooner than you would like to think.

I know you really want to keep your job but you can't wish this progress away.

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ZombieClaus t1_iy1422c wrote

I think you're underestimating the amount of different existing conditions that a trade person would come across, especially for rehab work in an existing building. You're interfacing with things that could have been installed over 100 years ago, of all kinds of materials, and if you do it wrong there is a huge risk to safety and property.

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While I do think AI will replace ALL jobs, I think these types of jobs will be some of the last to go. I also think that AI will replace the new construction trade jobs first since it will be easier to do the job in a more controlled environment.

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I'm an engineer, not a trade person, and I think my job will be automated well before the trades do.

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Rumianti6 OP t1_iy14fmh wrote

You are just stating things you think is hard for AI to replace. You sound like a trade person since you are defending it so much but I will assume you aren't lying for good faith.

Trade will be replaced before artists because you don't need human level AI for trade jobs to be replaced just advanced robotics and a sufficient AI.

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AkaneTori t1_iy16wts wrote

You seem to be really stuck on the idea of people being replaced, but even in art we won't be replaced, the job is just going to change irreversibly.

Just like how I use NAI and Midjourney in almost all my work now I'm sure plumbers will end up having a whole suite of tools that let them direct an operation that would otherwise need a crew of 50 men, but you're so obviously ignorant of the sheer volume of tasks and the necessity to manage them all properly that I wouldn't listen to your predictions to begin with.

Yeah, one day, 200 years from now all plumbing will be done by robotics, likely following a construction revolution that will standardize things even more than they already are. Hell, I imagine it'll be much sooner than that, even within our lifetimes, but you're underestimating the volume and complexity of the tasks you're talking about and thus speaking with extreme arrogance about something you clearly cannot accurately predict.

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Rumianti6 OP t1_iy18nhx wrote

We won't be replaced obviously because it requires AHI. Only job will change in a massive way though, I'm not ready for it personally. It will be the biggest change the art world has ever seen.

But the thing is creativity is a skill and in art you need both technical skill and creative skill. AI may get rid of the technical part but the creative skill is still needed. It is hard for me to get a good idea so obviously artists won't be replaced or obsolete people will still need creative people to make the art they didn't even know they wanted.

I'd say 30-40 years all plumbing will be done by robotics. It only requires an AI that knows plumbing and a sufficient body which will be much easier than people think.

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ZombieClaus t1_iy16qj4 wrote

AI replacing jobs comes down to economics. Is it cheaper to develop an AI/Robot to do a certain task than it is to just have humans continue to do it? Then it's ripe for automation. The jobs to target first are ones that are expensive, tedious/repetitive, easier to be done by a machine. We've already started automating jobs that machines are good at (think bank tellers, manufacturing, etc.).

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My own personal opinion is that the physical robotics will prove to be harder to do well than computer AI, and that automating jobs that use a combination of both AI and physical robotics will be the hardest.

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Also, you don't need human level AI to replace most artists. Have you seen some of the image generator AIs right now?

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Rumianti6 OP t1_iy185f9 wrote

The thing is that it will eventually be made cheaper. That is how automation works. In the future once robots are cheap enough to replace trade jobs then the trade people will be replaced. I'm sorry if you don't wanna hear it that is just the truth.

Yes you do need human level AI. You seem very uneducated when it comes to synthetic media in general. Humans are the ones who use the AI to make the images kinda like using a pencil. Once AI image generators become viable which I'm guessing will happen in 8-12 years. Then it will be normalized as a tool like any other. A AI who have to be human level to independently create art like a human does with all the complexity that it requires. AHI is long ways off 60-150 years.

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_gr4m_ t1_iy2dwxx wrote

And you sound like an artist trying to defend why artists will not be replaced and trade will be, lol.

And here I am, a non artist, who already are using the current AI to replace all my needs of an artist and it gets better by the month while ai still.are nowhere near even to begin being useful in the trades.

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TheTomatoBoy9 t1_iy2oxgs wrote

You are coping hard. The guy is right.

Before AI and robotics merge to a point where they are precise and efficient enough (and cheap enough) to tackle the diversity of on-site scenarios of many trades, most OTHER jobs will have been automated.

What you might see is more pre-built houses, for exemple, that are designed to be worked on by robots because they are made to be predictable and fit with AI trained on their models.

But most current buildings and infrastructure haven't been built with robot maintenance in mind. Sometime they're barely built with human access in mind lol. So if we assume infrastructure last 50-100 years depending on the type, that's probably the time scale of trade job relative "safety".

Until AGI obviously. Then anything goes. Either human emancipation from work or slavery to the machine overlords :/

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Yippeethemagician t1_iy2exmy wrote

Dude. Do you build anything? The complexity involved. I nean if they can pull off c3po robots soon, sure. K. And at that point, I would gladly give up my job. Robotics, maintaining and programming them would be the go to job though. Ai artwork replacing human artwork? I'm not sure how a robot doing artwork will help me express the emotions in my soul. Edit for clarification

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