Submitted by CookiesDeathCookies t3_z15xdt in singularity
Seattle2017 t1_ixbc1s0 wrote
Reply to comment by AI_Enjoyer87 in How much time until it happens? by CookiesDeathCookies
I don't see UBI happening in the US. Hard to say how far other democracies would go. The US has our own crazy delusional "social safety nets are a terrible thing" going on. I can't see the much more conservative US older generation ever voting for it (I almost wrote "allowing it"). The us is in a near fight with itself anyway, it will take a good amount of time before the younger generations take their place politically. After more and more jobs are lost to automation, how will people support themselves.? And how would the govt pay for more welfare? It doesn't matter if everything is suddenly much cheaper, it still costs something. My suspicion is this would be a time of extreme social turmoil, much more than now. It could be like the time of the Luddites resisting automation in textiles (https://www.history.com/news/industrial-revolution-luddites-workers).
This wholesale death of large numbers of jobs already looks to be happening just from electric cars replacing large numbers of mechanics, companies that design and manufacture internal combustion drive trains, alternators, emission inspection stations, mufflers, tune-ups, that will all be gone in a little over 10 years. It's certain that cars will go to electric, 5 million people will lose jobs in the us. Imagine how angry that will make blue collar america. And this won't even take any advancements over where we are today, no AI advancements are needed. Add on top of that the end of trucking as an occupation, the large industry that has truck stops and local jobs across the US, repairs and maintains diesel trucks (self driving trucks can take over between big cities). Yes, it will be great to avoid the need for that grinding long-haul hard job, but there aren't new jobs for those people.
AI_Enjoyer87 t1_ixcbstt wrote
It will definitely happen in the US even if it takes longer than Europe for example. Older generations aren't dumb. They don't want their children and their grandchildren out of money. If there are really no jobs they will vote for UBI like everyone else. Politicians who embrace these changes will be enormously popular (most of them already believe in the same ideology guiding the WEF and their preparation for the technological advancements that are inevitable). Those who don't currently support these developments will change their views according to what will get them elected or they will become politically irrelevant as these changes will effect everyone from left to right.
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