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420BigDawg_ t1_ix10s78 wrote

-EV, Solar, AI mass adoption starts

-Famine and recession

-Taiwan war

-80% chance Ukraine wins. 5% chance Russia uses small nuke, 15% chance Belarus and then Poland get involved prolonging war and also bringing world closest to ww3 than ever before with this and Taiwan simultaneously going on.

-Iran revolution fails

  • Vr headset mass adoption blueprint being laid out for 2024 and especially 2025 common use

  • carbon capture gains momentum

-Huge huge huge increase in Cell based meat. By 2026 everyone will be eating it. Global emissions greatly drop because of it by 2030

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michael_mullet t1_ix1adze wrote

Taiwan War is doubtful.

China is watching Russia destroy itself in Ukraine and has realized they can't win an amphibious assault and occupation of the island.

They even condemned Russia for the rocket in Poland (before it was determined to be Ukrainian). This shows they are siding with world consensus against the war and will not risk one for Taiwan.

Russian losses have been shocking to western observers. There is concern now that the war may go so badly that they use nukes - I agree this is a worry. I think western powers are providing enough equipment & intelligence to allow Ukraine to eat up Russia manpower until it collapses, but are trying to limit expansion into Russian territory.

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Jajuca t1_ix1sx7n wrote

Biden just said last week that the Taiwan war isnt happening after speaking to Xi. Considering he called the Russian invasion months before it happened, a war with Taiwan is very unlikely to happen next year.

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UniversalMomentum t1_ix28sbm wrote

Eating synthetic meat won't lower emissions that much.

>Meat and dairy specifically accounts for around 14.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to the UN's Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO).

You can't get more than 14% total drop from synthetic meat or realistically even come close since it still has a carbon footprint and mass adoptions obviously won't happen to anywhere near 100% by 2030.

You're looking a few percent in global emissions drop at most, maybe enough to offset growth, maybe not, but not enough to take a big chunk out of the problem... sorry.

The greenhouse gasses mostly come from burning fuels for power plants, cars and heating. Much of the 'industrial' greenhouse gas is just factories heating stuff up in industrial furnaces, so just another form of greenhouse gas from fossil fuel energy.

Around 70-80% of all human made greenhouse emissions are just from energy in one format or another.. so that's the only places where you will see big drops from big changes.

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