Lev/ Modern super computer tech question

Submitted by IzanTeeth t3_yyvxx4 in singularity

Once we get AGI (and supposedly soon thereafter ASI) won’t we already be at LEV? Won’t AGi be able to help us create nano bots with the capacity to fix virtually any biological problem we have from the inside? Furthermore, considering that were beginning to create Super computers that can perform the same number calculations per second as the human brain or in some cases more Why shouldn’t we be expecting the aforementioned tech by the early to mid 2030s by the latest?

12

Comments

You must log in or register to comment.

Rezeno56 t1_iwyt2ef wrote

What's LEV?

4

IzanTeeth OP t1_iwz3nt3 wrote

Life expectancy escape velocity, the point after which people will start being functionally immortal thanks to the adjacent advance of tech

1

DukkyDrake t1_iwwu3pu wrote

It depends on a lot of factors. If medical nanobots to reverse aging are created tomorrow, I would not expect your avg 60-year-old to survive long enough to get access to them.

2

Artanthos t1_iwx0c3s wrote

Health care for the elderly is insanely expensive. Add in the cost of Social Security.

I would expect both the insurance companies and the government to push for access.

4

tokkkkaaa t1_iwwwpzh wrote

Why?

1

DukkyDrake t1_iwx65l4 wrote

Economics of scale, the world is big.

>The newest EUV machines are state of the art producing the smallest feature sizes in nanofabrication and costs > $350m a piece. There are a few hundred of previous versions in existence in the world and lead times for the old versions are 12-18months. This tech is currently used to spit out semiconductor wafers before they're chopped up into chips, a large fab might produce 250k wafers a month.

You're going to need a high-tech manufacturing stack like semiconductors to manufacture your nanobots. It will take decades to ramp capacity, available capacity will land in the hands of the highest bidders. Also, 60 year olds trying to stay alive will be competing for the retail product with 30-year Olds trying to look like they're 20 years Olds.

2

rixtil41 t1_iwy0ifk wrote

I don't think it will take decades. I forgot the reason but let's come back on December 31st, 2039, and see how far nanotech has come.

2

DukkyDrake t1_iwz9l0s wrote

I'm only aware of 1 pathway that can improve extant nanofabrication, and that has gone nowhere in 30 years. There were easier ways to make money.

1

elfballs t1_iwyf1jg wrote

How are you counting the number of calculations a second a brain does?

1

imlaggingsobad t1_ix2h8mw wrote

I expect AGI will solve aging. It won't involve nano bots.

1