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Phoenix5869 OP t1_iwki498 wrote

Reply to comment by AsuhoChinami in 64 Exaflop supercomputer being built and will be operational by the end of 2022 according to forbes by Phoenix5869

No offence but 2040s seems more realistic than a lot of predictions on here, sry but were not gonna have agi this decade (would love to be wrong tho) and we are also not having asi next month! (I actually saw someone on here saying that!!!)

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-ZeroRelevance- t1_iwl3r6v wrote

I’m curious why you don’t think we’ll have AGI before then. The computational bottlenecks should be solved by the end of this decade, and there’s certainly no shortage of good ideas at the moment. Given that, the way I see it, early-mid 2030s seems to be a pretty reasonable estimate.

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Phoenix5869 OP t1_iwl88y2 wrote

Idk i could be wrong and i hope i am but it just doesn't seem like were gonna have agi before then.

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AsuhoChinami t1_iwm7tb2 wrote

There's no "could" to it. Your opinion is completely and utterly mind-boggling. Words can't describe just how completely bad and wrong your take is. It's like the last time you paid attention to the field was 2009 or something.

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Phoenix5869 OP t1_iwmglge wrote

ok so maybe my prediction is pessimistic but its more realistic than saying were gonna have agi in a few years like a lot of ppl here say

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AsuhoChinami t1_iwmo19v wrote

That's actually not unrealistic at all. I know some incredibly well-informed people who say that, up to and including the higher-ups of OpenAI. You don't have to change your mind but the "20s AGI" opinion is absolutely not as ridiculous as you think, or even ridiculous at all.

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Phoenix5869 OP t1_iwmquqa wrote

Like i said i hope my prediction is wrong and we get agi sooner

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AsuhoChinami t1_iwnel0p wrote

I'll back off then, just say you have good stuff to look forward to.

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Talkat t1_iwpgapo wrote

Can you share more of what the good folks over at openai have said?

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AsuhoChinami t1_iwm7zan wrote

ASI next month is of course silly, but your prediction is equally silly, just in the opposite direction.

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