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nblack88 t1_iwhkuel wrote

Reply to comment by AI_Enjoyer87 in My predictions for the next 30 years by z0rm

I tend to follow John Carmack's opinion on this: Having AGI doesn't actually herald instantaneous changes in our infrastructure or daily lives. It will take time to implement these advances, and build out the framework that AGI is incorporated into. The AI may be capable, but humans take time to allocate capital, achieve regulatory compliance, and execute those advances. It's coming, faster than we realize. But there is no magic bullet for deployment.

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Danger-Dom t1_iwzilm1 wrote

I think it depends on how well the AGI can optimize itself. If the AGI realizes we're doing AGI 10(00)x less efficient than is possible, deployment timeline will increase.

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nblack88 t1_iwzjf97 wrote

An increase is possible, and if all goes well, I expect it. It will still take time, unless we've dramatically increased the efficiency, scaling, and production of our various "hard" networks: Transportation, manufacturing, distribution, et al.

I hope by the time we have AGI and are ready to implement it in some/most aspects of society, we'll have these increases to facilitate the improvement.

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Danger-Dom t1_ix0zqpj wrote

Yeah I'm just talking about purely algorithmic improvements. So if we create an AGI on the worlds largest supercomputer. If it codes itself up 10x more efficient. Now there's 100s of computers that would be able to deploy the new AGI, and we're off to the races.

Unless, of course, it can't find improvements like that and then yeah you're right we'll have to wait around to build more supercomputers and make faster chips.

But overall I think still with the former situation it'd be a couple years before we started seeing large civilization wide gains from the AI and it's progeny. Not like a next day thing as people seem to think. But not 10 years either.

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