Submitted by Mynameis__--__ t3_yvccoy in singularity
phriot t1_iwg3wuv wrote
Reply to comment by [deleted] in The Class Struggle of Longevity by Mynameis__--__
Most people who follow Kurzweil think that AGI will happen in 2029. While the estimated year for experts at large is coming down, as recently as 2019 (maybe it was 2018?), polling of industry experts who chose to respond still had about half guessing 2060 or later.
But that doesn't really matter, because I think the first "good" longevity therapies will happen without AGI. We just don't know what they will look like, yet. If they are SENS-type engineering therapies, it might be possible to have too much of an untreated type of damage to get much benefit. If they are David Sinclair-Type "reset the epigenome" therapies, maybe we'll be fine at any age and damage status. If either of those don't pan out, or take too long, in the short term we might be stuck with things like stem cell treatments, organ replacements, engineered immune cells, etc., which may help lifespan, but are bound to be very expensive and not do much for healthspan.
In any case, I'm not too worried about any of the things I mentioned, other than being late. I'm young-ish, fairly healthy, (usually) prioritize health, fitness and nutrition, and am trending toward an upper middle class income. I probably have another 40-50 years in me, but both sides of my family have tended to go downhill pretty fast in their 70s. I could very well miss out if treatments come a decade or two later than I think they will, and are more about halting aging or increasing lifespan without healthspan at first, as opposed to rejuvenating to a younger state.
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