Russila t1_ivp90e4 wrote on November 9, 2022 at 4:45 PM

Reply to comment by stofenlez557 in Is Artificial General Intelligence Imminent? by TheHamsterSandwich

I just go off of what the best experts in the field are saying. Listening too a lot of Lex podcasts and reading articles on it a lot of experts seem to be saying 10-15 years. It's an appeal to authority argument, but I think if anyone knows what they are talking about its the people working on it.

phriot t1_ivpb5ya wrote on November 9, 2022 at 4:59 PM

There could be a selection bias happening here, though. Researchers more excited about progress may be more likely to be willing podcast guests than those who are more pessimistic.

Russila t1_ivpdbd9 wrote on November 9, 2022 at 5:13 PM

This is true. But if we scrutinize and doubt every single thing we hear then we wouldn't believe anything is true. There is a fallacy for every possible argument that can be made.

Do I think it will happen in 10-15 years? Based on what researchers are currently saying, yes. Could that change when new information is brought to light? Yes. We should base expectations on existing evidence and change them when that evidence shifts. Hopeless optimism and hopeless pessimism helps no one.

Regardless we should continue to accelerate the coming of AGI as much as possible in my opinion. It's potential uses far outweigh its potential downsides.

phriot t1_ivpht4o wrote on November 9, 2022 at 5:41 PM

>Do I think it will happen in 10-15 years? Based on what researchers are currently saying, yes.

Most of what I have read on the subject links back to this article. Those authors quote a 2019 survey of AI researchers with ~45% of respondents believing in AGI before 2060. The 2019 survey results further break that down to only 21% of respondents believing in AGI before 2036.

I'm truly not trying to be argumentative, but I really think that it's less "a lot of AI researchers think AGI will happen in 10-15 years," and more "a lot of Lex's podcast guests think AGI will happen in 10-15 years."

Don't get me wrong, I love Lex as an interviewer, and I think he gets a lot of great guests. Doing some digging: out of 336 episodes, maybe ~120 have had anything substantial to do with AI (based on the listed topics, titles, and guests). Some of those episodes were duplicate guests, and in others the guests were non-experts. (There were a lot more AI people featured in earlier episodes than I remember.) This does represent more data points than the survey I reference by about 4X, but I didn't keep track of all of the predictions given during my initial listens. I'll take your word that the consensus is 10-15 years, but that still isn't a huge data set.

Russila t1_ivpiy2i wrote on November 9, 2022 at 5:49 PM

This is true and here's the thing. It happens when it happens. None of us are divination wizards or prophets. We can only try to make guesses based on existing evidence.

What I do see very consistently across the board is people bringing AI timelines down. That makes me more optimistic I think.

AsuhoChinami t1_ivpywk4 wrote on November 9, 2022 at 7:32 PM

Thanks for letting me know that you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about and that I should block you. I hope I never come across one of your absolutely horrid, moronic posts ever again.

phriot t1_ivq1gwt wrote on November 9, 2022 at 7:49 PM

To the commenter that blocked me:

I can only see your comment if I'm not logged in, because you chose to run away instead of participate in a conversation. I am, in fact, not a moron, and would have probably changed my way of thinking if you could have shown me how I was wrong. Now, neither of us will get that chance. Have a nice day.