Submitted by TheHamsterSandwich t3_yqkxx7 in singularity
nblack88 t1_ivp4dac wrote
Reply to comment by stofenlez557 in Is Artificial General Intelligence Imminent? by TheHamsterSandwich
There are three things to unpack here that I think will better answer your question:
- Bias. Many people who believe the singularity will occur also believe it will occur sometime around 2045. It is commonly believed that AGI is a necessary precursor to the singularity, and many of the popular experts in the field believe we'll have AGI of some sort between 2035-2045. There's a member of this subreddit who helpfully chimes in with a list of each expert and their predictions. Wish I could remember their name, so I could tag them. Bias also works in the opposite direction. Negative bias permeates every facet of our culture, because we have a 24/7 news cycle that perpetuates that bias to make money. We believe everything is getting worse, but it's actually getting better in the long-term.
- Predictions. We're pretty useless at predicting events 20 years or longer into the future. 10 years is exceedingly hard. I was alive in 96'. I didn't imagine smart phones in 06. I thought it would take longer. There's a lot of evidence people can cite to support their positions for or against the date for AGI. Truth is, nobody knows, so pick whichever one aligns with your worldview, live your life, and see what happens.
- Choice. Speaking as someone who believes the technological singularity is coming...it's more fun. Can't tell you when, or how. It just means I live in a more interesting world when I choose to believe we're headed toward this thing. Nobody else in STEM is any better at predicting the future in 20 years than anyone else. So each group could be right or wrong. Probably both.
Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments