> I think people put too much stock into early stage developments.

Also, I'd say that thinking the Singularity will ever happen pretty much implies belief in the Law of Accelerating Returns. Combine that belief with the excitement over early progress you mention, and it's not surprising that people here are highly confident that AGI will happen any day now.

Personally, I do think we're coming to a head in a lot of different areas of STEM research. It certainly feels like something is building. That said, I work in biotech, so I know how slow actual research can be. FWIW, my guess is AGI around 2045, small error bar into the 2030s, large error bar headed toward 2100.