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ihateshadylandlords t1_ivov2ns wrote

Reply to comment by stofenlez557 in Is Artificial General Intelligence Imminent? by TheHamsterSandwich

> Why do people on this sub seem so much more confident in their predictions than everyone else?

I think it’s because this place (like most subreddits) is an echo chamber.

>What is it that people on this sub know that nobody else in STEM is aware of?

Good question. In my opinion, I think people put too much stock into early stage developments. I think there’s a good chance that most of the products/developments that get posted here daily won’t go that far.

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phriot t1_ivp1rfd wrote

> I think people put too much stock into early stage developments.

Also, I'd say that thinking the Singularity will ever happen pretty much implies belief in the Law of Accelerating Returns. Combine that belief with the excitement over early progress you mention, and it's not surprising that people here are highly confident that AGI will happen any day now.

Personally, I do think we're coming to a head in a lot of different areas of STEM research. It certainly feels like something is building. That said, I work in biotech, so I know how slow actual research can be. FWIW, my guess is AGI around 2045, small error bar into the 2030s, large error bar headed toward 2100.

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AsuhoChinami t1_ivpziqa wrote

How the fuck is this place an echo chamber? le intelligent, mature, rational skeptics like yourself are in the majority here. Does the fact that 10 percent of people here disagree with you really get your panties in that much of a god damn twist? Does absolutely everyone here have to be on your side? It doesn't count as an echo chamber if everyone has what you deem to be the correct opinion, huh?

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