What caused this? And what are the implications of this?

https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.12283

I am reflecting on the awesome Connor Leahy's pro gamer move: "if the prediction only ever updates in one way, just update all the way bro"

wouldn't be surprised if it dropped to 2025-2026 by the end of next year

wouldn't be surprised if it happens by the end of next year

Yep, I feel that my 50% AGI probability by 2033 prediction slides down. Nevertheless, I will not update it to less than a year until I see 99% precision on logical/common-sense tasks and working, episodic and procedural memory implementation in AI.

I like this one.

>When will a computer program be credited as an artist of at least ten pages of content in Weekly Shonen Jump?

A year ago, predictions were that it would take another 15 years or so. Current predictions are May, 2026, and only dropping.

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Yea, that was a pretty brilliant and insightful thought. If you keep updating and only updating in one direction.. yea, just update all the way bro. Eventho it is not totally clear what all the way means exactly. But.. sooner than we think.

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-is-publicly-known/

>Likely will be achieved well before, maybe even in this decade.

>maybe even in this decade.

2028 is "this decade". March 30th 2028 is only 5 and a half years from now.

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I think AGI will arrive in the wake of rumors and speculation. For months, people will talk about how X company (e.g., Google, OpenAI, Meta) has "solved intelligence" but nothing will be confirmed for an exceptionally long time. Internally, there will be pandemonium about the ramifications of releasing the model to the public. Inevitably, the model will be leaked, and imitation models will follow.

Why did I read it like 'in my opinion'?

Lol it's already gone down to 2027 in 4 days

wait for real? that's crazy, i gotta go take a look now