Have a good financial condition. Save enough to survive 2 years on your own. Likely you will not need much because if a lot of people are jobless, UBI will be given soon. It's a lot easier if you reduce expenses to as little as possible. Most people just spend large parts of income on rent, but if there is no job, no point in living in an expensive place closer to nowhere now. Rents will drop heavily in such areas.

Live life as normal. The optimism that runs this subreddit is often disappointing in reality. 5-10 years from now, things won't be that different if different at all.

I think focusing on finding what makes you happy and fulfilled is key. There is a chance most if not all jobs will be taking by intelligent machines in the future. Therefore planning your career seems futile.

Buy as much VTSAX as you can. You need to try as hard as you can to move from the employee class to the capitalist class.

place your head between your knees and kiss yo ass goodbye XD

you sure you didnt mean to say Bitcoin instead?

Assume the position and brace yourself.

Oh, they'll be different all right. FAR worse, due to political and social changes.

I presume the Singularity "position" is a T-pose.

No job automation until at least half a century from now.

First of all, the future is not for arrogants. If you get replaced fast, and the only alternative you have is to work in a lower social status job, do it asap. You'll have to adapt quickly to new jobs and opportunities as they get more scarce, regardless if they imply an attack to your self steem. I.e. I'm a software developer. I know I'll be one of the firsts to be replaced so I'm ready to do Business Analysis in the best scenario or physical work or other bad paid stuff if needed in the worst one.

Unless you are willing to work right now as a developer, it doesn't make sense to learn coding at all. Currently there is a campaign or movement, at least in my country, that states that "everyone can and should learn to code". It's a lie. Not everybody can learn to code and today nobody should. Coding will be remembered as no longer taught things in school, such as logarithm tables books or calculating the n root of a number on a paper. Expect it to be 99% automated in 10 years unless you are willing to code operative systems or quantum computing but those will be paid terribly bad because of the supply of existing programmers. Maybe 5 years left for this kind of job as we know it right now.

I'm not sure about investing on AI related companies because the open source version of their systems will destroy their profit. And for some reason there's always been plenty of people willing to destroy companies profits by implementing open source systems. You can see that scenario is generalized for Desktop Software right now. Also analyzing OpenAI products there are free open source alternatives, very close in quality and with no restrictions of use, that will probably get better than OpenAI's as time passes.

CS degrees have never been good at keeping pace with the technology changes. Maybe if you have the opportunity to study only for 3 years and then study by yourself, then it could be a good idea. This also depends on your country. I know in the US you need a master degree to work in AI fields but it's different in Europe or LatinAmerica.

Maybe some advice from preppers sites could be useful, just in case. Each contry will implement their own solution to this and don't expect UBI to solve this, it will have the opposite effect because imagine that almost 100% of the population depends on the president's will to get food. It will be more similar to a dictatorship if we don't address it in another way distributing the power on the people.

Finally, read, a lot, about what other people expect about this issue so you'll have a more accurate view. But don't limit yourself just to reddit's comments. You could probably find books about this.

We got the optimists on one side and the doomers on the other side

In reality things will be more in the middle

That's a good rule of thumb...until it isn't.

There's no way nearly all jobs will be automated in 10 years. Even with exponential advances in technology, I can't see that happening.

I wish all these things would happen! But yeah full automation within 10 years is crazy.

Developing technical skills is the best way to be Anti-Fragile in a dynamic world. One of black swan events will continue to disrupt the current status quo. This can be positive (new tech) or negative (lockdowns). In each edition of “Global Trends” the Atlantic Council (a highly respected think tank) has highlighted shrinking jobs in the unskilled fields, and increasing automation in professional services. We’re already are seeing this in accounting, and my last job we used a fork of GPT-3 to avoid hiring another clerk.

Given Ray's credibility, I don't doubt that AGI will be achieved by 2029.

But that doesn't mean the change will be instant.

All these people saying "Wouldn't AGI just turn into a super intelligence really quickly" do not see reality. It will take decades for that transition into a jobless utopia.

I'd like to be proven wrong but I don't think I will be.

No, I actually want OP to become wealthy. Bitcoin is for suckers.

I'd say he rather shouldn't live to strict long term plans, to have better life later.

Singularity may happen very fast at this point, so be happy in the moment

Yeah, this. The irony of op's question is that we shouldn't prepare, but just be happy in the moment

cringe

I think you're right. There's going to be a strange, probably turbulent time between Now and Then.

Only 20-30% of jobs need to be automated for there to be serious problems, IMO.

Coding will be absolete when ai learns to code, and that is already starting to happen.

Personally, I am afraid of what may come, bcuz giving out UBI, is socialism, doesnt matter how u look at it, it is, and we will be dependent

If they mix ubi with social credit score, we re fcked

If they mix ubi with social credit score tho, than we re fcked and most likely they will

You could be right but then exponential growth is a sly beast. Look at le rapidness in tech development within le last 10 years and then wonder how much faster that will go when AGI is thrown into le mix.

more people need to talk about this…it will be a neo-feudal slavery if we are not careful.

That’s a kind of funny thing to state so confidently.

Glad u see that... And u re 100% right.

This is more dangerous than we might think and I already see that it is underestimated big time.

I know right. Like 20% is fucking crazy. That would be around a billion people unemployed world wide which is significantly enough to have some serious impact on global society.

Step one: you're asking the wrong sub. These people believe in a techno messiah

The algorithms will either be out of our control and possibly destroy humanity, or they will be contained tools owned by the elitist aristocracy.

If they are owned by the aristocracy and oligarchs of this country, you will own nothing and be happy.

What a lot of people in this thread truly don’t understand is that rarely is value created for nothing.

Machines running will require energy…massive amounts. Expect that energy to come from an automated global economic system that likely includes humans doing different jobs they are assigned to.

You earn your CBDC credits for food, room, and if you are lucky some VR credits or cricket stew.

People will be forced to pay obey the system if they wish to take part in it.

Continue to develop yourself, professionally, physically, spiritually, emotionally etc. We may reach a point where AI causes a huge spike in unemployment/efficiency. But there’s no guarantee that will happen. So improve yourself as if the singularity won’t happen, because it may not happen in our lifetimes or at all.

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'rarely is value created for nothing'. Well hope it gets more common because post singularity none of us will have any real value.

Could you expand on this please? Would love to hear more info on this so I can deep dive into learning about different scenarios. Thanks!

Yep, the way I see it: anyone who is making statements with absolutely certainty doesn’t actually understand the situation to the level they think. The truth of it is: no one knows, it’s totally unpredictable

Would you have an alternative sub suggestion for asking this question?

The hell is VTSAX?

That seems like an aggressive timeline for cpders to be completely obsolete. What evidence do you have for this happening that quickly?

I'd rather be pleasantly surprised instead of expecting something to happen.

Yeah but Moores law is not holding up. Unless we have breakthroughs in quantum computers or some new processing power, the exponential growth is not true.

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U will have no value and everyone will have equal basic income and if u do something above that you will be paid more

I think that u cant really escape that.

Money are already printed from thin air, not gold backed.

Its just matter of time.

Pick up a meditation practice. Imagine you were told there's nothing left for you to do, but for your troubles, sitting quietly, focused on your breath, can bring you to states of ecstacy. Regularly filling your heart with love and presence.

Meditation comes in countless different forms, but all of them focus on being present with the experience you're partaking of. If the world is ending, you want to be present with the experience of it and have compassion for all those around you going through the same process. In the opposite scenario, where we're moving into a Utopian age, I still want to be present with the experience and have compassion in my dealing with others, so a meditation practice is foundational in all cases.

Cultivate a little stillness, a little perspective, a little good humor and joy. Understand the self and all the forces that drive you to act in certain ways, in order to alter your reactions to build habits more in line with your values.

1. Stay up to date on AI. Try out the new tools as they become available, even if it costs you a few dollars per month. You want to stay current to better predict where AI is going and what it will impact
2. Integrate AI into your workflows and accept the burden. From writing emails, to coding, to clip art for presentations. The more practice you have with AI as a tool, the better you will be able to use it when it improves.
3. Proactively look for processes in your career where AI can be used to improve the process. This might be out of your current domain (eg another department), but look out for them. If you can build experience in applying AI to existing processes it will be a in demand skill for many years.
4. Invest a portion of your net worth into companies that will benefit from an AI boom. Tesla is my #1 candidate atm with self driving, their Tesla bot, and as a contender for AGI.
5. Take care of your health. This is good general advice but you want to position yourself to see as much of the tech change as possible.

The amount of wishful thinking on this sub borders on that of religion. Everyone wants something from the singularity, whether it's immortality, not having to work, or escape existential dread by living in a VR.

While I have no doubt the singularity will come at some point, I don't think it will happen in the next 5 to 10 years.

Complexity in AI is hugely underestimated (by many, many exponential steps), and all reasons as to why some fields like biology will not grow exponentially, even with a fully functioning AI in place, (financial blocks, time for technology to be adapted, slow experimental verification of predictions, ...) are conveniently skipped over.

The way to prepare is to live your life as if it it's not going to happen, because that is what it's going to feel like for the next 10 years at least.

This is why I've always thought that it's a damn good idea for people to setup a self sufficient family/community home out in nature. That way there is no pressure to rely on society, if it goes down you stay up, if it screws with you you give it the finger. It's incredibly easy to do as well, with how much information and technology is floating around.

You can spend a few days learning how to start a food forest. You can order books cataloging the native edibles and herbs in your area. You can setup a forge and a shop, or even a small saw mill or a textile for utilizing hemp or cotton fibers, get animals if you have enough land. There's a thousand ways to supply electricity, water, and raw material to these homesteads (especially in a community), that is both cheap and reliable. Not to mention this shit is incredibly fun to do. It's like minecraft in real life. And it's possible to setup something nice and simple out on a few acres if you're alone. If you have even 3 people, it's incredibly easy to setup something really nice if you're patient and stay consistent (just like minecraft lmao).

serious question, don't you think 90% of stocks will go to 0 the day AGI is announced, since it will basically mean that all those business models are obsolete?

what does a clerk do? How does GPT-3 replace them?

Im also a big fan of ecovillages and been planning to open one for very long.

I will eventually do it, just a matter of couple years.

I tried to gather crowdfunding, but that is impossible.

What is possible is one rich person enough to buy land and just sell/rent parcels, rent for just working in EV.

I got people willing to partake in this.

Do u have any place in particular, for such thing ?

I personally am big on Philipines, cuz of no winters, hot climate and abundance of places to go, visit, preferably by boat, abundance of fishing, close to sea and many more, such as cheap land, workforce, etc

Don't panic, it all adds up to normality.

There will be revolutionary developments, but there will be also tons of friction and inertia while they start affecting your everyday life.

Maybe adjust for less certainty about things staying as usual in future, but follow the common wisdom. Continue building your career, but keep in mind that you might have to change it. Keep a lively mind, learn new stuff. Make some savings (as someone suggested, at least to let you live for two years without a job), but don't count on coasting on your investment income forever. And so on.

Most importantly, find simple things to be happy about in the moment. Relations, hobbies, sports, etc. It is good to have some foresight; it is not healthy to "live in the future", especially if that makes you anxious.

depends. This is just my own theory without real sources, so take it just as that, but when we talk about Moore's law we only look at hardware advancements...obviously. But what about the software side? We see rapid improvements in AI and software optimization today, take DLSS for example. Without any noticeable loss to quality, DLSS is able to up FPS count by 40-50%. What if we apply this to tech in general. Moore's law might not be able to hold up in the hardware sense, but maybe we are able to achieve way more with less in the future.

Purchase as much computing power that you can afford even though you currently don’t perceive you have a need for it now and even if you don’t know how to code. This can be a high performance gaming computer, an Apple Mac Studio, or AWS virtual machine subscription. The use cases will be coming sooner than you can imagine.

Yeah possibly it's just all speculation. I need more evidence before I can be convinced. The software will always be limited by processing power from my fairly narrow bs in cs. Never really got into the super advanced classes that got into that side.

Im heavily resistant to the idea of needing money to live off the land, but I suppose it's necessary if you want to go around building shelters and fences and not just having seed, song and fire - with a nightly tent shelter. I could do either, but it wouldddd be nice to "own" my own space, I suppose. I personally feel at home anywhere, and I just want to have an adventure with all kinds of people and animals everyday, but for comfort and peace of mind, having that community and maintained gardens to come back to, would be pretty nice. I just wish they were literally all over the place. These homes and society in general just doesn't hit like it should. Our spaces should be fun and adventurous and free spirited, but it's all about safety, productivity, and boundaries.

I'm looking for freedom in the world. Maybe one day we can dissolve our borders and help each other all have abundance. In the meanwhile a community would be a nice starting point. I'm personally broke tho lmao. I'm in north Texas and it's actually quite nice. Proximity to Austin and other cool cities is dope. Haven't put much thought into going outside the US but it seems Intriguing. Hmmmmm

Yeah, definitely :). As I said, it's just an thought experiment, I'm not arguing this is actually gonna happen. I couldn't know.

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r/anarchoprimitivism

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Well, I am from Poland and I want to move sooner or later, rather sooner, to PH. Life is cheaper and better over there.

Money is just needed to kickstart things. Later on, u are indeed sustainable. Plus u can make money from producing some products, like food, jams, idn, u name it, can be anything. Income is needed, u cant drill ur own gas and fuel ur boat with it, I guess:) Some money is necessary.

Subject is very broad.

I am open to discuss more if u want to. I rly like this idea.

Send me ur fb thru pm and I will notify u, if things start to heat up ^^

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That's the thing about the singularity, it's the point where predicting past it is impossible. There's no prepping for it.

I disagree with your fourth point. Specifically that AI companies will be the main benefactor of AI technology. I think the opposite is true, that AI companies will benefit almost nothing from the creation of AI but that companies whose value generation is bottlenecked by human workers will benefit the most.

Also drivers and physical labor is going to be the last domain to get automated, not the first. Physical navigation and manipulation of physical environments is the hardest problem to solve for AI. Digital intellectual workers will be the first to get replaced.

As Tesla is focusing on the last parts of automation (Navigation and physical manipulation of environment) I expect them to be losers in this scenario.

Industries that will benefit the most are those that are currently bottlenecked by lack of human intellectual workers that could be quickly replaced by AI over the next 5-10 years time. Law firms, R&D, Pharmaceutical industry are most likely to be the big winners, at least over the next 5-10 years time as most of their workers get replaced while also able to scale up their "production" due to having technically uncapped amount of AI "intellectual labor" at their disposal.

What kind of technical skills?

Be a plumber (or similar trade) and save/invest your money. They make good money and It’s very unlikely that we will have durable dexterous mobile AI powered robots that can do the job of a plumber anytime soon. I’d bet a lot of money that it will be one of the last high paying “standard” jobs replaced.

Thats just a small group of people with an even more narrowed view. If anything asking it in bigger subreddits is the way, at least you'll get more varied opinions.

Thoughtful reply, thank you.

>AI companies will benefit almost nothing from the creation of AI but that companies whose value generation is bottlenecked by human workers will benefit the most.

Hmmm. I have a very hard time agreeing with this statement. I'll share my assumptions:

1. There a large barriers to entry to strong AI. Meaning a startup with limited resources will not be able to compete with a well funded AI company. The costs of compute are just too high.

AI companies will do the heavy lifting and create a base model that startups can then fine tune and they can raise their costs to eat the profit of their customers who apply it to specific problems.

Physical navigation and manipulation of physical environments is the hardest problem to solve for AI. 

Exactly. You want to invest in a company that creates a product that is difficult to achieve because then competitors can't come in and eat their lunch.

Tesla has competitive advantages in data, compute and hardware. They are miles ahead of anyone else. Once they get there they can license the software out.

And AI for driving and bots is more or less the same.

>Law firms, R&D, Pharmaceutical industry are most likely to be the big winners, at least over the next 5-10 years time as most of their workers get replaced while also able to scale up their "production" due to having technically uncapped amount of AI "intellectual labor" at their disposal.

Those with minimal barriers to entry will be eaten by competitors. You will not see an old school law firm start to train their own AI models. This will be done by startups.

And those startups will be paying the model generator (eg; OpenAI) everytime they make a query.

Pharmaceutical companies with the equipment in place, funds for trials, etc. could benefit from it.

Having said that, Deepmind is focusing on making drug discovery easier by (in the future) creating accurate digital cells. That is a way off.. but! that certainly doesn't favour the incumbents.

When a massive disruption hits an industry it is not the existing companies that will benefit from that change. They already have their margins priced in and I think they can only really go down.

Interested to hear any counter points.

Bitcoin sure, but smth like NANO ( instant feelea crypto is the way

BTW I would happily take a 10 year counter investment with you.

I go long Tesla and short your position of incumbents.

Bitcoin sure, but smth like NANO (instant feeless crypto) is the way

What I meant by saying "physical navigation and manipulation of physical environments is the hardest problem to solve for" is that it won't be in the first big round of automation which is what we're now slowly starting to see happening, thus investing in those areas is premature. Kinda like investing in "palm-top" smartphones before the internet had sufficient penetration. You should invest in that area after this initial automation of digital/intellectual workers to achieve the highest financial return. Programmers, Lawyers and Pharmaceutical researchers will be replaced long before self driving is solved.

I also disagree that there is a large barrier to entry to a strong AI. There is a large initial investment to it, but after the initial investment has been done in terms of R&D, algorithms needed and hardware configuration it works on it's trivial to build. Look at current Transformer model and how newcomers quickly are able to make State of the art (SOTA) products like Stable Diffusion. This showcases that the AI makers won't be the winners here, they are like the enablers. It's not like the steam engine builders were the big winners from the industrial revolution, it was the steam engine users that generated the most value, I expect the same to happen with AI because the barriers to entry are indeed, not that high.

You make a great point towards existing businesses having "sticky" practices with margins priced in which is ripe for disruption. But in that case the businesses best to invest into don't exist yet as they will be startups, which wasn't the question at hand, the question was which companies should you invest in now.

Due to my assumptions listed above I think the worst financial mistake to make is to invest in companies that are actually building the AI systems as they are investing R&D into something that once completed has extremely low barrier to entry and it would render their own core business obsolete. Which is why I think it's unwise to invest in something like Alphabet.

I also think it's counter-productive to invest into companies that has a too long-term vision and won't benefit from the short term automation of intellectual and digital workers like Tesla. They invest in what is probably the 2nd or 3rd wave of automation after intellectual workers are already gone; Navigational and physical manipulation. I would hold off on investing in Tesla and use your capital to benefit from current capabilities which are large transformer model AI that can disrupt intellectual workers. The return horizon on self-driving cars and robot workers is just too long to be worth the investment in 2022.

I agree, Save up and expect to be out of a job during a transitionary period.

I'm a programmer with a CS degree. I expect all facets of CS to be automated away over the next 5-10 years. It's not a save career at all.

I also don't think investing in AI companies is a sure bet. Not because I don't think AI will dominate. But because the primary beneficiaries of AI technologies will actually not be the AI companies. It will be the entities that will be able to generate the most value once AI technology is in their hands. This isn't software companies that provide the AI technology. These are value generating sectors that are mostly being bottlenecked by human labor constraints..

In fact I can actually see AI businesses go out of business the more they succeed at building competent AI because the technology would inherently get commodified over time which is the worst position a company could find themselves in.

Remember that the companies that built the first railroads almost all went bankrupt, it was the ticket sellers that profited the most. I suspect the same to be true for AI since the dynamics are the same. The companies building the AI will almost all go bankrupt as the capital investment to build the AI is fixed but the rewards of AI will not inherently benefit the builder of the AI but the user of the AI.

That said, here's what you should do:

• 1: Lower your dependence on external producers as much as possible. Generate your own electricity, own your own place, maybe even generate your own food, Get a 3D printer to print your own replacement parts

• 2: Get as much savings as possible. Make sure this is a properly diversified portfolio, paper cash, digital savings on a bank, Government Bonds, Company Bonds, Stocks in every sector, Precious metals, maybe even some crypto.

• 3: Ensure that your job has as much physical components to it as possible. Physical jobs are harder to automate as they need a physical capital investment in most cases. I'm a programmer myself so I'm probably one of the first to go, but I could switch to computer engineering with my degree and pedigree quite easily which would require hardware tinkering which makes me harder to replace.

Drivers, Miners, Janitors, Construction workers etc are the ones to be automated away last, Digital intellectual workers that sit in front of a computer all day to manipulate data in some way or another are going to be the first to get automated. This means all programmers, lawyers, digital artists, system admins, data entry, office workers and everyone else using a keyboard and mouse to generate income is going to go the way of the dodo in the next 5-10 years time.

I used clerk as a generic term for a program manager that does mundane tasks such as report and document writing. We fed our team’s output to the AI, it learned to mimic our style well enough that allowing it to read actual data produced a decent draft. This eliminated the need to hire someone with the skills equivalent to a BS in Business.

lol!

How are drivers and physical jobs the last to be automate?

We are already making a lot of progress with autonomous cars And if AI can build cars then why can't they build computer hardware ?

The wealthy and the corporations will control it. They will make insane amounts of money for 10 to twenty years after AGI. Once everyone is unemployed it is any guess what will happen.

bitcoin is for suckers huh? i guess that's why blackrock and the billionaires of the world are stocking up on it

XD

fwiw a total stock market index is probably the safest way to invest in that aspect of the market yes , but at this point in time it would be foolish to ignore the adoption of the next technological revolution in finance [the biggest in our lifetimes]

Have you been listening to Rich Dad podcast again?

nope ; too busy reading other stuff

is this something that kyosaki talks about?

EDIT - didnt even know he had a podcast , but ofc he does becuz why wouldnt he , there's a podcast for everything isnt there? XD

He did until Bitcoin crashed.

fair-weather friends dont seem like the best advocates ill give you that XD

this happens every market cycle , and expecting the adoption cycle of a disruptive technology to be a 45 angle upwards without volatility is naïve

i think its fair to compare the bitcoin/crypto markets to the early .com interwebs ; both overhyped too early on but grossly underestimated long-term

Indeed, money will always be practical as long as a vast majority is still valuing and using it. It is a really cool idea!! If nothing else I'd love to visit and help grow food and just hang out at the place if you start one. I don't really use Facebook, but I have a telegram and Instagram. Feel free to pm me for them. Otherwise, we know where to find each other on reddit!

Bitcoin has no intrinsic value. It is purely speculative. It depends on there always being a greater fool to pay more than you did. Eventually you run out of fools. No different than the Tulip Bulb Mania that gripped Europe 400 years ago.

Thank you for your response.

I particularly agree with your point that once we hit an AI milestone it is easy for others.

Do you think it will be easy for a large amount of AI companies or will it be limited to a handful? Like can a startup come in and be a year behind an industry leader or is it reserved to ~10 AI leaders?

100÷ agree the best return will be startups. Perhaps it will be those who can utilize AI to replace traditionally labor heavy industries.

In that circumstance, do AI startups (eventually) compete with each other and drive the price down?

I also agree with the premise that you don't want to invest in companies with a long term vision(or more importantly, launch date). However I think our estimated date for self driving is very different. I think there is a small chance Tesla will get self driving in 2 years, and a very good chance of 3-4 and certainly by 5.

So on the assumption that the barriers to entry are low to advanced AI, then the real winners may be those you can buy assets that produce a physical product (which will always be limited unlike AI) which they can then automate and lower the operating cost. I'm thinking primarily physical assets in this example.

For digital assets then it is almost a certainty that a startup is a far more effective manner to compete.

I think I would start with r/mutualaid or learning about community organizing.

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im sorry that you seem grossly mis-informed

https://youtu.be/q8R71WGO3qU?t=45

this video is over 4 years old ; at that time BTC was around $7k

The real Singularity was the friends we made along the way

They required a four-year BS degree to "do mundane tasks such as document writing?"

A former Bachelor's position replaced by GPT-3, really?

Sorry but I'm about skeptical about this.

A stock market spider, similar to the classic SPY symbol.

Can you provide example use cases?

I understand where you’re coming from. I’m in a niche industry where technical writing skills are needed. Being educated enough to understand the topic enough to write a report isn’t something you learn in high school. We didn’t need the AI to do the math, we just needed it to do entry level work.

Learn to code, that and any kind of STEM degree will be future proof.