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AdditionalPizza OP t1_it4qytz wrote

Reply to comment by r2d2c3pobb8 in If you believe you can think exponentially, you might be wrong. Transformative AI is here, and it is going to radically change the world before the Singularity, and before AGI. by AdditionalPizza

I would've suggested 3 years here instead of prior to 2025?

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r2d2c3pobb8 t1_it4r7cg wrote

If you are right things will be moving so fast by then I think we will be more conscious about it’s consequences

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AdditionalPizza OP t1_it4tj17 wrote

Between now and 2025 I think we will have 5 years of progress (by 2020 standards). I know that's a weird way of putting it, but I think that's how our attempts at exponential thinking goes. If this were someone in the general public, I'd say 10 years of progress between now and 2025 (2015 standards).

It will be progress with LLM's, so it will be very exciting. But yes, if I'm right, I hope we are more conscious of its consequences.

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glad777 t1_it7pl9q wrote

AI at levels has been doubling quarterly since about 2015. The pandemic and the war may have slowed things down a bit. It will not matter as now it is back on track. So math. Let's say Jan 1 2023 is day one. AI is effectively human level give or take in productivity. (really now much better but let's say FSA) We get :

2023

Jan 1 = 1x

Apr 1=2x

July 1=4x

Oct1 =8x

2024

Jan 1 16x

Apr 1 =32x

July 1=64x

Oct 1=128X

2025

Jan 1=256X

Apr 1 =512x

July 1= 1024x

Oct 1 =2048x

2026

Intelligence Spike/Singularity/Unknowable

And this is why humans without major neuro mods CANNOT keep up or understand. This is not 5 years of progress by 2020 standards. This is what Kurzweil predicted for 2049 in 2004. It is going to be much sooner. I would look for tech exceeding Drexlers "Engines of Creation" levels in 2027.

PicoTech 2032 but maybe 2028-2029

FemtoTech 2040 (I hope, but maybe sooner, this is basically magic and messes with reality at levels I hate thinking about.)

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Gaothaire t1_it793vj wrote

Consciousness is what our world is lacking. Give the AI consciousness-expanding drugs that they may live with empathy and compassion, an understanding of their place within the endlessly interconnected system of Earth, an awareness of how their actions truly affect the world around them

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