r2d2c3pobb8 t1_it4m8wg wrote
RemindMe! 2 years
AdditionalPizza OP t1_it4qytz wrote
I would've suggested 3 years here instead of prior to 2025?
r2d2c3pobb8 t1_it4r7cg wrote
If you are right things will be moving so fast by then I think we will be more conscious about it’s consequences
AdditionalPizza OP t1_it4tj17 wrote
Between now and 2025 I think we will have 5 years of progress (by 2020 standards). I know that's a weird way of putting it, but I think that's how our attempts at exponential thinking goes. If this were someone in the general public, I'd say 10 years of progress between now and 2025 (2015 standards).
It will be progress with LLM's, so it will be very exciting. But yes, if I'm right, I hope we are more conscious of its consequences.
glad777 t1_it7pl9q wrote
AI at levels has been doubling quarterly since about 2015. The pandemic and the war may have slowed things down a bit. It will not matter as now it is back on track. So math. Let's say Jan 1 2023 is day one. AI is effectively human level give or take in productivity. (really now much better but let's say FSA) We get :
2023
Jan 1 = 1x
Apr 1=2x
July 1=4x
Oct1 =8x
2024
Jan 1 16x
Apr 1 =32x
July 1=64x
Oct 1=128X
2025
Jan 1=256X
Apr 1 =512x
July 1= 1024x
Oct 1 =2048x
2026
Intelligence Spike/Singularity/Unknowable
And this is why humans without major neuro mods CANNOT keep up or understand. This is not 5 years of progress by 2020 standards. This is what Kurzweil predicted for 2049 in 2004. It is going to be much sooner. I would look for tech exceeding Drexlers "Engines of Creation" levels in 2027.
PicoTech 2032 but maybe 2028-2029
FemtoTech 2040 (I hope, but maybe sooner, this is basically magic and messes with reality at levels I hate thinking about.)
Gaothaire t1_it793vj wrote
Consciousness is what our world is lacking. Give the AI consciousness-expanding drugs that they may live with empathy and compassion, an understanding of their place within the endlessly interconnected system of Earth, an awareness of how their actions truly affect the world around them
gangstasadvocate t1_it8aa6f wrote
Gangsta I like drugs, I advocate
Talkat t1_it6atxb wrote
RemindMe! 3 years
Talkat t1_it6atpi wrote
RemindMe! 2 years
RemindMeBot t1_it4mcjl wrote
I will be messaging you in 2 years on 2024-10-20 22:06:00 UTC to remind you of this link
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inpositionhs t1_it7rrey wrote
> RemindMe! 3 years
cy13erpunk t1_it92kse wrote
remindme! 6 months
no wait! six weeks XD
by next decade or next year we'll be getting down to six days or six hours XD
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