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AdditionalPizza OP t1_isqj3qh wrote

Reply to comment by DukkyDrake in Will OpenAI's improved Codex put programmers on the chopping block? by AdditionalPizza

Do you envision the "text to anything" AI we see cropping up as incapable as it is now? I have to assume the next iteration of GPT or whatever will be markedly improved. I think that comes down to the question of how long will it be until someone can enter text like "make a program that does so and so" and it does it. Give another prompt to edit any undesirable results, and then you finish.

I know this is a total oversimplification of programming, but I certainly don't think it requires full AGI to do that sort of thing. I don't know how large your team is, but well before AGI could probably replace most of them if Codex evolves at a rate anything like other AI that uses this approach.

But the real question I'm asking isn't really about the skilled members of your team over the next 5 to 10 years. I'm asking about right now, are the prospects of beginning a career or schooling to learn programming assumed to be fruitful? There's no denying programmers are skilled workers now, but will this tech open the flood gate for anyone with the ability to do basic text prompts? That would effectively reduce the amount of skilled programmers by a great percentage, making the skilled positions much more competitive and the unskilled ones much lower pay.

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DukkyDrake t1_isqmbtz wrote

I envisioned AI being able to reproduce reality in bits and bytes with perfect verisimilitude. These first flawed attempts don't really move the needle in the real world. It's easy to think the gap is close since it went from 0 to something in a decade, but the last 0.099% is a mile away. That last tiny bit is probably the hardest and keeps current AI from being broadly economically useful.

I would still recommend programming to a high school grad interested in the field. Even if the future pans out, programming skills would still be a great jumping off point to many related areas.

Btw, my time horizon for AGI that's capable of doing most economically valuable tasks is 2030.

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AdditionalPizza OP t1_isqnpnt wrote

>Btw, my time horizon for AGI that's capable of doing most economically valuable tasks is 2030.

We're in the same boat. Realistically, my question could be applied to basically any sector. Just a matter of when. But yes, of course if it's 2030 before a possible disruption of full automation it doesn't matter what career someone chooses.

But it's impossible to think that far ahead, and the fact programming could very likely be the main subject in the crosshairs for various reasons (it's the end goal for AI?), I'm apprehensive about further studying. I'm not in high school, it's more of a second career situation and time is of the essence to me, as in I don't want to gamble on the wrong horse.

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DukkyDrake t1_isqqes3 wrote

If AGI hits in 2030, I expect it will take decades for the effects to spread through society.

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AdditionalPizza OP t1_iss7jui wrote

Decades eh? I'm probably a little less conservative than that. My feeling is large corporations will take advantage of it it as quickly as possible. It could also have a profound effect on society. I think of it as the industrial revolution, condensed into a week.

But who knows.

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DukkyDrake t1_istxsyf wrote

Physical products will never scale as fast as digital ones.

What happens to prices when there is an oversupply. The capital that creates production capacity isn't doing it because their owners are humanitarians, they expect a profit. It takes controlled production and supply to maintain markets. If prices collapse, production will follow, even if that production costs very little. Unless every individual has their own pet AGI, I expect the same forces and dynamics to be in play in society.

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