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Yuli-Ban t1_irc13na wrote

Personal opinion hasn't changed much:

  • Proto/Frozen AGI will be here by 2024 (think "Supersized Gato with task interpolation and commonsense reasoning")

  • Oracle-like/weak AGI between 2024 and 2027

  • Human-level strong AGI by 2032???

Possibly too conservative on that last one, but better to be conservative on things like these so you're pleasantly surprised when things come true ahead of time.

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Sashinii t1_irc3kya wrote

Your predictions aren't far off from my own.

Do you have any predictions for when ASI and the singularity will happen?

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Yuli-Ban t1_irc47b4 wrote

Quantitative ASI: right after AGI is created because there's not much of a tangible barrier between subhuman, par-human, and superhuman task completion. Could be as soon as 2024 with "frozen superintelligence."

Qualitative ASI: probably mid 2030s. We'll probably need a lot of neurofeedback data to get to strong AGI and, then, true superintelligence.

Singularity: not going to lie, I have my doubts about a Kurzweilian Singularity. I think the effects of ASI will resemble it for a while, so again, 2030s into 2040s.

Edit: Should probably stress that quantitative ASI is better described as "superhuman general task automation." We already have superhuman AI, in very narrow fields like chess, go, and arithmetic. You can consider these narrow task automation programs since the "AI" moniker is tenuous to begin with.

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Sashinii t1_irc4i74 wrote

I agree. I can't wait to enhance my neocortex and experience qualitatively new things.

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sideways t1_irdcv0y wrote

Sparrow seems like a proof of concept for Oracle-like weak AI.

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