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red75prime t1_irbptwo wrote

Reply to comment by Sashinii in “Extrapolation of this model into the future leads to short AI timelines: ~75% chance of AGI by 2032” by Dr_Singularity

I expect that AGI running on a widely available hardware will be thick as a brick (no, distributed computing will not help much due to relatively low throughput and high latency).

Well, it will be a witty conversational partner, but extremely slow at acquiring new skills or understanding novel concepts.

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wen_mars t1_ireahel wrote

If the current state of the art is an indication, organizations with access to big compute will publish ever better AI models for people to download. You won't have to train the AI on your home computer to get an AI that is up to date on reasonably new concepts.

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red75prime t1_iredfs9 wrote

An intelligent agent that just can't excel at doing something until some future update (and forgetting how to swiftly do something other after the update, thanks to limited model size, which is necessary for real-time operation). Episodic memory compatibility problems (due to changes in model's latent space) making the agent misremember some facts. Occasional GPU memory thrashings (the agent slows down to a crawl). And other problems I can't foresee.

All in all, a vast opportunity for enthusiasts, a frustrating experience for casuals.

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