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ihateshadylandlords t1_irbfc59 wrote

Do you all think it be in the hands of a few or still in the proof of concept stage by 2032? Or do you think it will be publicly available to the average person by 2032?

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Sashinii t1_irboerm wrote

Everyone will have AGI. I'm sure yuppie bastards think otherwise, but open source will win.

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red75prime t1_irbptwo wrote

I expect that AGI running on a widely available hardware will be thick as a brick (no, distributed computing will not help much due to relatively low throughput and high latency).

Well, it will be a witty conversational partner, but extremely slow at acquiring new skills or understanding novel concepts.

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wen_mars t1_ireahel wrote

If the current state of the art is an indication, organizations with access to big compute will publish ever better AI models for people to download. You won't have to train the AI on your home computer to get an AI that is up to date on reasonably new concepts.

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red75prime t1_iredfs9 wrote

An intelligent agent that just can't excel at doing something until some future update (and forgetting how to swiftly do something other after the update, thanks to limited model size, which is necessary for real-time operation). Episodic memory compatibility problems (due to changes in model's latent space) making the agent misremember some facts. Occasional GPU memory thrashings (the agent slows down to a crawl). And other problems I can't foresee.

All in all, a vast opportunity for enthusiasts, a frustrating experience for casuals.

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Bierculles t1_irdlh40 wrote

hard to say, the thing is, one slipup from the top is enough for AGI to spread exponentially. Also i recon that countries that have it availabe for the public are going to rapidly outpace those who don't in pretty much every way possible.

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DukkyDrake t1_irimfna wrote

You assume it will be something that can run on a few high-end home computers? It could require computational substrate as big as a building and consume gigawatts of power.

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SmithMano t1_irbjk7e wrote

Better start hoarding money so you'll be able to afford it

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wen_mars t1_ireatpv wrote

And if you're wondering how, learn AI programming and get a job that involves making other people's jobs obsolete.

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TFenrir t1_irbgq74 wrote

What do you mean by proof of concept? These are real models, and real insights that we gain. Those insights are applied sometimes almost immediately on models the public have access to.

Do you mean, in this 2032 prediction, are they talking about AGI being something that's available to the public or only available to people behind closed doors? It would be the latter, because the nature of this prediction is that it would be emerging in the bleeding edge super computers that Google is using in their research.

Honestly I'm not even sure how AGI could be turned into a product, it would just be too... Disruptive? The nature of how regular people would interact with it is a big question mark to me.

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ihateshadylandlords t1_irbhzbm wrote

By proof of concept, I meant that it was something that they’ve disclosed they have, but aren’t making it publicly available for whatever reason.

If the AGI model can be applied to programs that the public can use (like GPT3), then that would be great.

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TFenrir t1_irbos42 wrote

> If the AGI model can be applied to programs that the public can use (like GPT3), then that would be great.

AGI just wouldn't be possible for quite a while after invention for publicly available models though. I don't even really call GPT publicly available - you have API access but you don't actually have access to the model itself. We do have other publicly available models though; stable diffusion, gpt-j, Roberta, etc.

Regardless, think of it this way... Imagine a group of scientists standing around a monitor, attached to a private, heavily secured internal network, which utilizes a distributed super computer specifically just to run inference on a model that they just finished training in a very secure facility. At this point the models before have been so powerful, that containment is a legitimate concern.

They are there to evaluate whether or not this model constitutes an AGI, if it has anything resembling consciousness, if it's an existential threat to the species.

They're not going to just... Release that model into the wild. They're not even going to give the public access, or awareness of this model in any way shape or form, for a while.

That doesn't even get into the hardware requirements that would probably exist for this first model.

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ihateshadylandlords t1_irbth00 wrote

I’m not tech savvy at all, I didn’t know there was a difference between API and GPT3. But yeah, that’s why I’m not as hyped as a lot of people on here whenever AGI is created. It’s not like we’ll be able to use it (unless someone creates an open source version of it).

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iNstein t1_irceopl wrote

API stands for Application Programming Interface. It is basically a series of commands that programmers can use to access/communicate with another program like GPT3. A kind of specialised instruction set for your program like gpt3.

Having an API connection to something like gpt3 is very similar to having gpt3 running on your own computer in a functional sense. It just means that you do not have to have the high performance hardware to run it on. It is the best option for something like gpt3 to be able to get as many ordinary people using it without us all going out and buying extremely expensive hardware.

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imlaggingsobad t1_ird13t9 wrote

The most powerful and sophisticated models will be controlled by the largest tech corporations (i.e. Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, IBM, Nvidia, etc). They will slowly embed the AI into their products as enhancements/features, and also they will rent out their models to other businesses sort of like an 'AI model as a Service'. Initially I think the cost to access a proto-AGI API will be expensive because it will be quite capable, but costs will dramatically decrease as more companies offer the service. While all of this is happening, there will be hundreds of open-source versions that are less powerful but still very good.

My prediction is that one of these large tech companies will get to AGI first, but they will keep it contained within their company for some time. They won't release it to everyone straight away. In the meantime, other large companies will get to AGI just by following the bread crumbs, and then quickly we will have AGI (or at least proto-AGI) in the hands of several companies. Once that happens, there will be a race to monetize it and productize it. It will take the world by storm. Every business will be racing to adopt these AGI models to improve their efficiency/output or whatever. Then the open-source community will crack the code, and it will be available to pretty much everyone. Whether you'll be able to run it on your own machine is another issue, though.

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