Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

lazystylediffuse t1_ir7vyzd wrote

I agree that it has been absolutely mind-blowing but I think that this is "merely" an exponential increase in our representation learning capabilities which is necessary for but lacks the agency needed for AGI.

57

Atlantic0ne t1_ir8uhzg wrote

Agreed with this comment.

I’m not a hardcore singularity follower, I just happen to follow this sub among a ton of others because it’s interesting.

I will say that I have the same impression as many of you. The progress seems to be stacking on right now. I’m actually seeing things that make me think “holy shit”, like the generating of images or even generating of a (admittedly basic) video game based on a written description of it.

It’s hitting though. Right now. We’re about to see advances in a whole lot of areas in the next 5-7 years, is my guess. I don’t know about AGI but I bet humanity sees some pretty crazy and efficient tools and growth in tools in the next 5-7 years.

29

anjowoq t1_ira0uch wrote

These current AI mimic our writing and art beautifully, they creatively recombine elements but they are not yet understanding the world beyond their text or graphical inputs.

They have no personal story or experience yet.

6

frenetickticktick t1_ira6n7q wrote

They don't mimic my art beautifully. They try but the results are pretty creepy and distorted.

2

anjowoq t1_irab796 wrote

Well I'm sure there are lots of exceptions. I'm just very surprised what I HAVE seen this year. I thought it would still be years off.

2

frenetickticktick t1_iraqucm wrote

Honestly me too! It is impressive but an image on a screen pales in comparison to real art

1

SmithMano t1_irbohb0 wrote

I think the wildest thing about what we're experiencing now, is that basically anyone an access it. For all of history, crazy new physical technical tools and gadgets would be limited to the few who could afford it.

Even DALLE was fully closed off, but only for less than 2 years. And now we have many free image generators like Craiyon that equal or surpass what DALLE 1 was. And with stable diffusion, we get the cutting edge immediately.

But what makes this different from hardware is that AI theoretically has unlimited uses, assuming it can achieve the same learning and problem-solving capabilities as a human brain eventually. (And I see no reason why it wouldn't)

So everybody gets all the tools immediately with just a download.

3

Atlantic0ne t1_irbt1h1 wrote

I know…. Wait until we tell it to solve medical tasks, or solve (reduce) traffic, or things like this.

2

genshiryoku t1_ir98hyz wrote

100% agreed. Call me back when a large model demonstrates positive transfer between completely different skills. That is when I become convinced AGI might happen within the decade.

As long as there is no proof of positive transfer it's just going to stay very cool and powerful narrow AI.

Papers like GATO shows that positive transfer might be impossible with our current AI architectures so AGI probably requires a large breakthrough. We can't simply ride the current wave of scaling up existing architectures and arrive at AGI.

11

DataRikerGeordiTroi t1_ir9xgpw wrote

Y'all are so much nicer and better spoken than me. I'm just "lol whut. ok sis go off but no its not."

then go struggle with a chatbot to try to order some taco bell (not really but the idea is to communicate that I go engage in an activity that proves how totally far off the

s i n g u l a r i t y really is. kids these days really do swear one deepfake of christopher walken eating a radish or one hella specific ml model picking out one super specific defined thing out of two really excellently set up libraries means the ai revolution is nigh).

−3

ZoomedAndDoomed t1_ir8r6kx wrote

The difference between AGI and what we have now is a CMM (central model manager) we need an MLM that can learn to use the models we have, and integrate them into its own model.

5

ViveIn t1_ir9tsiy wrote

Interesting comment. I googled CMM but didn’t find any results. Is this in any of the current literature?

1

ZoomedAndDoomed t1_ir9ucla wrote

Entirely my own concept. It's a concept I made a post about on here, but it never got posted. A CMM is my hypothesis for the different between general artificial intelligence (where different models can do anything) and artificial general intelligence (where a single model has the ability to do anything).

0

stevenbrown375 t1_iraciqq wrote

Is AGI required to call it a singularity? Not just runaway self-improvement?

1