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TFenrir t1_jebuahq wrote

I think it's a hard question to answer, because many factors can go into layoffs - and after layoffs it's very common for companies to not hire back similar roles but replace tasks with software. That doesn't even get into the culture of layoffs - some companies just don't like doing it, and you'll hear stories about people who go into work all day and play Minesweeper or whatever.

That being said, I think we'll see the first potentially significant disruption when Google and Microsoft release their office AI suite.

I know people whose entire job is to make PowerPoint/Slides. When someone can say "turn this email chain into a proposal doc" -> "turn this proposal doc into a really nice looking set of slides, with animations and a cool dark theme" - that's going to be very disruptive.

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monsieurpooh t1_jefc9ai wrote

Ok but how common is it really to have a job position where "the entire job is to make PowerPoint slides"? Seems pretty niche even for large tech companies

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TFenrir t1_jefd3vh wrote

I'll give you a very common job - someone whose job is to take meeting notes, summarize them, turn them into meetings or documents, create slide shows - sometimes for a single person, execs, or a group of people. We have a couple of people with this job in my company.

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monsieurpooh t1_jefdhy5 wrote

It seems pretty niche. Like you mentioned only 2 openings at your company. The company I work at is pretty huge and I don't think that kind of job even makes up 1/10,000 of our jobs, if at all, because all these tasks are distributed across other people on a rotation, or just part of another job.

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Alchemystic1123 t1_jefewun wrote

This is the very beginning though. I bet digital camera manufacturers thought nothing of cellphones at first. I bet Blockbuster (if you are old enough to even remember it) thought nothing of Netflix at first. It might be a few niche jobs that go first, but many many more are going to quickly follow.

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monsieurpooh t1_jeffyd0 wrote

Oh I agree with that; I just think it'd be odd for a company to have a job position that's purely making powerpoint slides

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Alchemystic1123 t1_jefgfe2 wrote

Yeah I don't see Microsoft Copilot taking any jobs, it will make some jobs easier and move them from like 85% downtime that they are now to like 99% downtime instead though, lol.

Truthfully, even before AI starts making waves, I feel like there are many office jobs now that basically just exist so someone can not be unemployed and are completely unnecessary.

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TFenrir t1_jefhazp wrote

That's fair, I think there might be other jobs that are similar here or there, but I use it as a good example that I feel like could almost be replaced whole hog with just one new AI app

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Akimbo333 t1_jefeyz2 wrote

I know of a Fortune 500 company who hasn't hired a supervisor for my friends team for over 3 months!

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SalimSaadi t1_jef42c5 wrote

I thought that already existed like two weeks ago:

https://youtu.be/S7xTBa93TX8

Regards.

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TFenrir t1_jef6zp6 wrote

It's not in people's hands yet, these are press releases, but the difference will be when it's folded into everyone's Microsoft/Google experience, which will take months. Maybe by the summer everyone will have access.

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SalimSaadi t1_jefenl6 wrote

So your forecast for OP will come true this year and 365-Copilot will cause massive layoffs, or failing that (assuming workers are protected by seniority and severance), companies will stop hiring new "PowerPoint Engineers" 😂 Regards.

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Subinatori t1_jefnlou wrote

Not hiring is more likely. I don't think you immediately start laying people off because some new piece of software shows up. There's a period of acclimation and getting to know whether it will actually consistently do what you need it to do. And the people who will be doing that testing are the people currently doing the work. So as it makes their job easier it's just that there won't be as much need to hire new people because productivity per person is up.

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