To me it seems that AI is broadly entering the phase where it will assist human labour rather than fully replace it. Sure, some jobs like illustrators are on the brink of being automated away, but these examples are the exception rather than the rule (for now).

Therefore what capabilities does AI to need to gain to start replacing large numbers of jobs, rather than just assisting like it does currently?

I guess it’s also possible that AI doesn’t need to gain any new capabilities and that we just need to wait for GPT-4 to become more widely adopted and integrated into businesses for wide scale job losses to start kicking in.

Comments

SkyeandJett t1_jee5zes wrote on March 31, 2023 at 11:12 AM

None. The SOTA systems right now deployed at scale would create massive disruption. Maybe you can't automate 100% of your production pipeline but that's irrelevant. If you can automate most of it with one person just left to check the work you're looking at a huge disruption to white collar work.

flexaplext t1_jeeos7z wrote on March 31, 2023 at 1:54 PM

It needs work-based training data. That's where Copilot comes in:

https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/11t13ts/the_full_path_to_true_agi_finally_emerges/

Once this system gets better, then we'll start seeing proper unemployment happen on a worldwide mass scale.

There will be lots of new jobs created for a while though. As people say. I think the job market will be perfectly fine, even with this massive shift. That is, up until AI reaches true AGI / ASI, then the job market will be shot to pieces.

Xbot391 t1_jeepiy0 wrote on March 31, 2023 at 1:59 PM

What new jobs do you think will be created?

flexaplext t1_jeesk7z wrote on March 31, 2023 at 2:21 PM

I'm not sure exactly. As people say, it just always happens. The only thing I think these people are wrong about is that this trend continues after true AGI. That's when all trends and models of the economy and everything else breaks down.

If I had to guess, I think a lot of people will just be moved into places where AI is not yet fully capable. Mass collective data training. The more people on it, the faster we'll get to true AGI. If the AI is not yet at true AGI, then that means there is obviously areas where it needs to learn.

The economic value of training AI, once it has a full capacity to learn well from training, will just be absolutely massive. So it will require work from home-based solutions to get more people into these areas and very quick turnaround and retraining of people into new areas. The economic value will certainly be there though to facilitate such a system.

I think we'll inevitably also start to see a greater amount of real-world value being created too. So there will be a large increase in real-life activity needing to be done, whilst the robotics side of things lags behind.

I think robotics will still lag behind for a while, even after true AGI is created. It will take some time to manufacture and deploy all the necessary robots to replace workers. So there will still be a lot of people with jobs safter the inception of AGI even but then, slowly but surely, they'll start to get replaced. Starting with the higher salaried jobs first, then down towards the minimum wage workers eventually.

I think there will still be physical work after AGI. But it will be incredibly low-paid and optional. Humans are still useful, but they'll just have to accept not being paid much at all i order to stay economically viable against a robot.

raylolSW t1_jefx3qf wrote on March 31, 2023 at 6:46 PM

No way to know, imagine telling someone from the Middle Ages influencer, machine learning engineer, etc would be jobs, there’s no way to know.

raylolSW t1_jefwtds wrote on March 31, 2023 at 6:44 PM

Automated steps, basically we have the road, but we need the traffic lights, signs, etc.