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yagami_raito23 t1_je6qs4z wrote

"you can't possibly imagine what jobs are coming" happened with other technological revolutions. For example, i don't think people in the 1920s could have possibly imagined twitch streaming.

But AGI is bigger than anything we can imagine. It will do everything.

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Gaudrix t1_je7fuom wrote

It's not a very good example.

99% of streamers don't make enough to survive as a single source of income

99% of all revenue of streamers is earned by those in the top .1-.2% of viewership

That's not a job. That's an incredibly lucky and fortunate situation.

There may be different and new things we will be able to do with AI, but 99% of people will never directly benefit financially from it. Not including UBI and profit sharing due to automation which would be indirect. The compensation of UBI will also never exceed current earning potential pre-AGI. Unless we are actually post-scarcity, and the AGI can do everything for us. Early stages of AI rollout, what we are experiencing now, up until full post-scarcity will be dick for just about everyone. People with resources and capital will never willingly share if they don't need human labor.

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hungariannastyboy t1_je8j44l wrote

>Early stages of AI rollout, what we are experiencing now, up until full post-scarcity will be dick for just about everyone.

A.k.a. our lifetimes. Great times ahead. God this shit is bleak.

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bh9578 t1_je8pmh6 wrote

I keep thinking about what AGI would do to the stock market. While it’s difficult to say who will be the winner or loser, I think it’s fair to say the broader market will grow like crazy as economic output skyrockets. I believe it was Nick Bostrom who stated in his Superintelligence book that if the AGI gave the same jump in economic output that the agricultural revolution or Industrial Revolution brought, the broad market would double every two weeks. That sounds crazy but then again the markets doubling about every 8 years would have sounded insane to anyone before the industrial era. Such growth would accelerate wealth inequality where anyone who doesn’t have a decent amount of their net worth in equities gets left behind with no chance of ever catching up.

That kind of world gets even scarier when AGI starts tackling aging. There’s always been differences in life expectancy among economic classes, but that difference could quickly widened.

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fool_on_a_hill t1_je7ff8o wrote

is it gonna swing a hammer? are we all just gonna keep pretending there isn't a nationwide skilled labor shortage? There's plenty of work to go around. Everyone just thinks they're too good for it. If you try to tell me they'll have robots doing that soon enough then I don't think you understand AI, robots, or construction.

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shmoculus t1_je7n6z8 wrote

People said AI couldn't do art, write stories or make movies. These things are now either done or will be done soon. Robotics will go through the same progression, say within 5 years we have an android that can operate in complex environment, within 10 it replaces almost all manual labor

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fool_on_a_hill t1_je7oy8k wrote

> say within 5 years we have an android that can operate in complex environment

no AI expert would concede that we are anywhere near that close to this. You're severely underestimating how much work the human brain does to filter out complexity and practice relevance realization. Hell we can't even reproduce the visual cortex let alone all the other sensory input systems required to do what a grunt construction worker does with ease.

Personally I don't think we'll ever do it, but that's just me. Either way it's decades out

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shmoculus t1_je7xg4m wrote

what do you think of Boston Dynamics' Atlas robot?

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fool_on_a_hill t1_je802h4 wrote

I think it’s not nearly as good as it seems yet and it’s also never gonna be economical to replace laborers

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BeGood9000 t1_je8ojes wrote

The idea is if we get AGI it will solve manufacturing Robotos that are good

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fluffy_assassins t1_je7ky6i wrote

People don't think they're too good for it, they just won't get treated like shit for shit wages.

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fool_on_a_hill t1_je7lby4 wrote

You can make a damn good living in construction. You have no idea what you’re talking about

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play_yr_part t1_je7lyxr wrote

you can if there aren't vast swathes of unemployed people trying to get into the sector

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wad11656 t1_je7tt16 wrote

Not if every white collar worker clamors for a construction job in the near future. Also blue collar wears your body down.

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fluffy_assassins t1_je7m2dn wrote

No, I'm talking about a lot of issues with short staffing in general. If someone CAN do construction, and fit in with the other employees, and they don't? They are... A bit dim. But I can't blame someone for not wanting to get screamed at at McDonald's for minimum wage or pissing in a bottle for Amazon.

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fool_on_a_hill t1_je7okb6 wrote

so you're talking about unskilled labor. I'm talking about skilled labor.

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fluffy_assassins t1_je9dwdw wrote

"is it gonna swing a hammer? are we all just gonna keep pretending there isn't a nationwide skilled labor shortage? There's plenty of work to go around. Everyone just thinks they're too good for it."

We are talking about jobs, not skilled jobs.

People think they're too good for unskilled labor.

Labor that is skilled requires skills. If it was as simple as swinging a hammer, it wouldn't be skilled labor. So you're trying to talk about skilled labor like it's unskilled labor to transfer the blame to people who don't have the resources to acquire the skill and then claiming they think they're too good for your skilled labor when there's just no way they can do it.

Yeah, no.

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fool_on_a_hill t1_je9yont wrote

Yeah no you sound like you’ve never done a day of manual labor. They teach you the skills from scratch. They’ll hire anyone that passes a piss test and even then they’ll make exceptions

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