You hit the nail on the head. Individual users and groups are cobbling together what could in fact be considered AGI as we speak. Anyone whose AGI prediction is later than 2024 might want to adjust it. Any sort of delay is ill advised. Most of these models still use GPT-4 at their core but I suspect once they're refined you could get away with something like Dolly for all but the most demanding problems and that's assuming someone doesn't bootstrap a self-improvement loop together that actually takes off.

As an example:

https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/11zqsuy/maximalist_eb_volition_an_open_architecture_for/