-Yes, but GPT-4 wasn't public till they did extensive red teaming. They looked at all the worst cases before letting it out, not that GPT-4 can't cause any damage by itself just not the kind ppl are freaked about.

-That is a given with the aforementioned arguments, ASI assumes superhuman ability on any task and metric. I really think if GPT-5 is showing this same trend that alignment ease scales with intelligence, people should seriously update their p(doom).

-My argument boils down that the standard of sufficiency can only be satisfied to the degree that one can't observe failure modes anymore, you can't arbitrarily satisfy it just like you can't observe anything smaller then Planck length. There is a finite resolution to this problem, whether it is limited by human cognition or infinite possible imagine substructures. We obvious need more interpretability research, and there are some recent trends like Reflexion, ILF and so on that will over the long term yield more insight into the behaviour of systems as you can work with "thoughts" in text form instead of inscrutable matrices. There will be likely some form of cognitive structures inspired by the human brain which will look more like our intuitive symbolic computations and allow us to measure these failure modes better. Misalignments on the lower level could still be possible ofc, but that doesn't say anything about the system on the whole, it could be load bearing in some way for example. That's why I think the only way one can approach this is empirical, and AI is largely an empirical science let's be real.