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JacksCompleteLackOf t1_je2z152 wrote

Reply to comment by datalord in Chat-GPT 4 is here, one theory of the Singularity is things will accelerate exponentially, are there any signs of this yet and what should we be watching? by Arowx

I hadn't seen the OpenAI paper before, but it states it's about the coming decades; and that makes the Twitter thread more interesting because one of the authors is putting a hard date on 2025 for some of those innovations.

It's pretty easy to find flaws in the Microsoft Research paper. It's funny that they hype up its performance on coding interviews, but don't mention that it falls down on data that it hasn't been trained on explicitly: https://twitter.com/cHHillee/status/1635790330854526981

Admittedly, I'm probably more skeptical than most.

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FoniksMunkee t1_je37buh wrote

I'm pretty sure they mentioned something like that in passing didn't they? I know they have a section in there talking about how it fails at some math and language problems because it can't plan ahead, and it can't make leaps of logic. And it considered these substantial problems with ChatGPT4 with no obvious fix.

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JacksCompleteLackOf t1_je389eh wrote

Actually, I think you're right and they did mention it. I guess I wish they would have emphasized that aspect more than the 'sparks of general intelligence'. It's mostly a solid paper for what it is. They admit they don't know what the training data looks like. I just wish they would have left that paragraph about the sparks out of it.

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FoniksMunkee t1_je38yix wrote

Yes, I agree. The paper was fascinating - but a lot of people took away from that the idea that AGI is essentially here. When I read it I saw a couple of issues that may be a speed bump in progress. They definitely underplayed what seems to be a difficult problem to solve with the current paradigm.

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datalord t1_je4ep43 wrote

Logic leaps, if rational, are a not leaps because we do not perceive the invisible steps between them. A machine can make those jump with sufficient instruction and/or autonomy. It’s just constant iteration and refinement along a specific trajectory.

If irrational, then much harder, perhaps that’s what creativity is in some respects.

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