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Professional_Copy587 t1_je0cx1q wrote

No. We don't even know how to build AGI.

The ridiculous thing is that in 9 months time the people on this sub deluding themselves in an echo chamber will be the same ones declaring an AGI winter because it hasnt met their own unrealistic expectations.

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1II1I11II1I1I111I1 t1_je0drvf wrote

Bruh...

The goalposts for AGI are continually moved by people who want to remain ignorant.

Transformative technology is literally already here. Within a year GPT-4 will be involved in most peoples' personal or professional lives. Now realise that the technology is only improving (faster than predicted)

Would anyone hire you over GPT-4? How about GPT-5? What about GPT-6 with internet access, and full access and memorization of your companies database.

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Professional_Copy587 t1_je0fk5l wrote

Yes it's very transformative technology. You cannot however leap from that to AGI and singularity. All you are doing is setting yourselves up for disappointment. The disparity between the thoughts of professionals and academics working on this, and the views of this sub are astounding. Yet everytime they are mentioned its passed off as being over cautious. Nobody is moving the goal posts except for the people on this sub.

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1II1I11II1I1I111I1 t1_je0g9bo wrote

Would you say the Microsoft paper from LESS THAN TWO WEEKS AGO saying early forms of AGI can be observed in GPT-4 isn't the "thoughts of professionals and academics"?

All an AGI needs to be able to do is build another AI. The whole point is that ASI comes very soon after AGI.

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[deleted] t1_je0h37m wrote

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Few_Assumption2128 t1_je0mint wrote

Goofy take. It is true that we don't yet fully understand Concsciousness. But calling official microsoft papers clickbait is some next level dogshit take.

Also we kind of do understand what "could" be the needed improvements made to LLMs in order for them to get better and eventually gain consciousness. These improvements were discussed in the "clickbait microsoft papers".

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It seems to me the only one not actually reading those papers is you

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hyphnos13 t1_je0wqe9 wrote

Why does AGI need to be conscious?

In fact why does it have to be general. A bunch of specialized networks that can speed up human science or discover things on its own will advance progress in a way that is indistinguishable from an agi acting on its own.

If we build a machine intelligence capable of improving other ais and the hardware they run on then specialized "dumb" ais will still outpace human development faster than we can keep up.

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[deleted] t1_je0pti8 wrote

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Villad_rock t1_je0q161 wrote

When ai enters the economy now it will make trillions of dollars, companies can be left behind, countries can be left behind. Which means NOW we enter a stage of huge talent and money into ai research, strong competition which further accelerates research, governments will be involved, an ai arms race.

That is actually the game changer in developing agi.

Look how far we come in 10 years without all of this.

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Professional_Copy587 t1_je0qozc wrote

Thats just outsider speculation. You could say the same about many things but in terms of development and progress towards AGI my point still stands

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hyphnos13 t1_je0x9un wrote

Maybe. A lot of the economy is the production of physical goods, food, power, infrastructure. You can be infinitely smart and not be able to grow enough food to feed a single family.

Ai can tell us how to do and make things better but it won't happen instantly unless it gains the power to manipulate matter and energy simply through computation alone.

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Villad_rock t1_je1aed1 wrote

Those industries will also be more productive and I mean with current ai.

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hyphnos13 t1_je1crpe wrote

I agree but there are many many aspects of the economy that ai can't improve rapidly. Things still have to be dig out of the ground, moved around etc. Up to the point we can 3d print or micromanufacture everything at the point is needed.

Maybe we will get an ASI that can devise tech like that but it's unlikely we are getting star trek replicators any time soon. The base atoms will have to be made available in order to make whatever and that involves a great deal of inefficient gathering and transporting for the foreseeable future.

A lot of what people are referring to as increased productivity is just increased profits from automating inefficient desk jobs and the elimination of the managers standing over them.

Real productive increases will require better designs and machines to build things otherwise we are just talking about reduced labor costs.

I think most of the real money from ai/AGI/asi whatever comes about will be in the creation of things that don't currently exist because they haven't been invented yet, not replacing accountants and lawyers with expert systems.

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Villad_rock t1_je1mg84 wrote

A lot of money is in software, most startups as well as companies with high market caps are in tech, there aren’t even enough programmers for the demand. Ai will make them much more productive.

It doesn’t need to affect every industry immediately to produce a lot of money and competition.

Adobe, google, unity and soon many more come with their own ai products to be not left behind.

The manufacturing and transport industry etc isn’t even really important to accelerate towards agi because computer scientists and programmers are the biggest contributors which are in the tech industry.

We also don’t need asi or replicators just robots who dig everything up, manufacture and transport it which needs agi. At that point there will be no real economy anymore.

Really weird how you talk about money in an age of agi/asi.

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Mokebe890 t1_je0dkql wrote

It is literally happening right now but okay. We are some years away from true AGI but gpt 4 as protoagi is huge step

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Pimmelpansen t1_je0xug7 wrote

Nature didn't know how to build human intelligence, yet here we are.

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