I would be willing to believe most of that. I still stand by my point that those are ultimately socioeconomic outcomes to socioeconomic problem sets. In those examples, I think that AI is essentially acting as a catalyst for other reactions.

I do think making good predictions about future history is somewhat next to impossible, as there are so many variables that wildly change the outcome, "butterfly effect" and all of that. But there are still some things that can probably be predicted.

I also think a lot of people in this subreddit are much more well-versed in AI tech than history, economics, political science or sociology. I think a historical understanding of past major technological progress events is essential for making predictions. Understanding AI tech is also important for this but not as much. A lot of the time people in this subreddit just make things up without comparing to historical events or citing a real foundation for their argument.