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Vehks t1_j8duhyx wrote

Reply to comment by eat-more-bookses in Anthropic's Jack Clark on AI progress by Impressive-Injury-91

>How do we know we aren't approaching a plateau? Summer and Fall 2022 were nuts

Wasn't fall 2022 like... a few months ago?

>But, since then, not a lot has changed, at least not like the delta we experienced last year.

"last year" was just over a month and it's been pretty wild since about Oct to now, IMO- So its been like what? 20 minutes since the last drop and you are ready to pack it in already? Society hasn't even had a chance to catch its breath yet and truly take in GPT 3 and what it can do. It takes time for people to even see the full potential in a new tool and already a plethora of models have been spun out from it.

Shouldn't we at least wait a year or so of no updates/news/breakthroughs/releases etc etc before we start worrying about a plateau?

For the record, I have highly tempered predictions of the future and I tend err on the side of conservative, but even so, it's way too soon to be calling anything right now. Let the dust settle first.

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ButterMyBiscuit t1_j8dznpg wrote

Huge news, breakthroughs, new projects, new applications, new companies, new models, new funding happens EVERY SINGLE DAY and this MF is worried about a plateau.

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eat-more-bookses t1_j8fv9u3 wrote

Adoption is progressing at a dizzying pace, that's for sure.

True advancement tends to be noisy with step increases dispersed about.

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eat-more-bookses t1_j8fuwfl wrote

Thanks for the grounded perspective! I am cautiously optimistic, but extrapolation is a dangerous game.

I think we need accompanying hardware breakthroughs for exponential advancement to continue long term.

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