It’s all good until they implant AI-enhanced ad targeting and engagement. So good you won’t even taste the koolaide.

If true, I will be ditching google all together. Maybe even switch over to Msft Edge browser.

Looks like perplexity.ai , but better ( maybe? )

Doesn't feel very GPT4. Seems like simple retrieval augmentation.

So not all rumors are fake. People were saying that semafor article was garbage.

This is interesting so far but not groundbreaking yet. I'm hoping the rumor that GPT4 can code entire programs also is not fake.

If the rumors aren't fake, Google will be adding a chatbot to their front page very soon. But I too will ditch Google if Bing adds GPT4. At least until Google releases lambda on their frontpage.

🚂🚂 choo choo everyone aboard the hype train choo choo 🚂🚂

That rumor came from Connor Leahy, CEO of Conjecture, https://twitter.com/npcollapse/ . He is a serious person in the AI/ML world and has direct connections to Sam Altman and other big names, so it would be very unusual if the rumor was not true. When trying to interpret that rumor though, you have to realize that being able to "code an entire program" can place GPT-4 somewhere on a scale between high school programmer who can write a basic crud all the way to John Carmack, which actually doesn't tell us very much.

Even if it had just the skill set of an entry level programmer would result in massive societal effects and job displacement.

Of all the hypothetical scenarios for GPT-4, this result represents what the more grounded predictions on the lower end of the hype scale look like. What I am hyped about is the quality of answers/responses, but there's not enough evidence from those leaks for me to know how excited we should be.

Forget ads. Political views are the real danger here.

I'm not so sure. 28 million programmers in the world means 0.3% of all people on earth could be affected by job displacement, but only a small percentage of that 0.3% might lose their job, and the work that's being automated won't result in many visible changes except the financial outlook of companies that previously employed those workers. The programming abilities of LLMs like GPT-4 needs to exceed human ability in a general way before the effects to society could be described as massive.

This is the least exciting news you could have gotten on GPT4. If this is all we're getting, looks like GPT4 was swallowed by bing/Microsoft lol.

We need the GPT 4 that can code entire programs.

You are missing the point. The average "knowledge" worker doesn't go beyond Excel spreadsheets. Even an AI with the skills of the average high school graduate will make a massive disruption.

Can't happen fast enough for me, Google's been utter shit for at least three years now and I've been using DDG mostly instead. The only exception being if I'm actually looking for a corporate sponsored result, in which case Google is just super 🙄.

If Bing is as good or better than ChatGPT, it's an overnight done deal for me.

Forget political views. Sex is the real danger here.

For real, I would switch to Bing instead of using Google too

How?

So gpt-4 could be a highly optimised version of gpt-3 so that it's cheap to integrate it as part of search. Unless ofcourse Bing with gpt will be a paid version.

People will be able to search for any kind of sexual fantasy they want, and it will be created by the generative AI on demand if it doesn't already exist. Thus we simply won't be able to stop masturbating.

Very true

Go back to futurology

Nah.

Ah X)

So basically the same as now? Just even easier?

Much easier.

Imagine a couple months ago hearing someone say they’re ditching google for bing.. Exciting times.

Forget Sex. Extinction of decent human beings is the real danger here.

Part of me thinks that they’re using the hype surrounding GPT-4 as a marketing tool. Especially with Sam Altman tempering expectations in his recent interview. There is clearly a ton of misinformation about what it’s truly capable of so why not just market a slightly better version of GPT-3/3.5 integrated into Bing and just call it GPT-4?…Or just drop a bomb on everyone and release the beast.. 🤞

If the rumors aren't fake, then Google/Alphabet is right now in Washington D.C. and lobbying like crazy to curtail AI development in Congress. Not due dangers to Humanity. Nah! They no longer care about that--remember, they removed the “Do no evil” from their motto. But because they were asleep at the wheel until right now, and then woke up and got the mother of all frights at the prospect of losing their entire business to new tech. Gee. Karma perhaps?

>Forget Sex.

If only I could...

My understanding of transformer technology (as present at least) is that it's very hard to update. So a (near) real time GPT3.5/4 isn't possible without a fundamental technological breakthrough, which based on various interviews I'm fairly sure hasn't happened yet.

AI is already heavily used in ad-targeting.

Alternative Theory, my opinion:

AGI is coming and Google knows it. Sooner than anyone expected.

AGI will be able to rapidly replace all knowledge workers, at least the current skillets they have.

Without some kind of regulation, you're dealing with a huge amount of unemployment in the US.

I'm not sure if regulating AI to make sure it doesn't displace everyone in the white-collar economy is a bad thing.

Which ones?

The ones who realize, that once you have a genie at your hands that fulfills all your wishes, wishing for porn and videogames 24/7 will push you in a bottomless pit. As a society, we're already struggeling with all the bad things that exploit our primitive desires (fast food, sugar, ..) if you can't control your urges here, there's a high probability of you getting lost in the woods of the digital realm and being seduced by the powers that'll drag you in.

It doesn't make any sense to me. Why go for technology that is not proven yet? The ChatGPT servers are overwhelmed with a model that presumably is simpler than GPT 4. And they are going to roll out a GA product just like that? I think that they are doing whatever perplexity.ai and lexii are doing. So no code generation in Bing. Maybe in Copilot. But I think the use case will be: I want to do test driven development. I wrote the tests, now give me the actual code. Or the opposite.

I don't believe that you can give GPT 4 a user story and that it can churn out code. How would it know the business specific terms? Product owners are really good at making them up, you know? My friend Fred says that it will come down to creating lists of sentences and feeding them to sentence transformers. That's doable. You need some GPUs and time. Hopefully this will help translate from the domain to general for GPT 4.

Where we go we don’t need GitHub anymore :-)

Google isn't what it was. They're already comparable IMO.

That depends a lot on context window size - if it's 4K or 8K tokens like today, it won't cut it. For full app coding you need to be able to load dozens of files.

Related to this - if we get, say... 100K context size, we could just "talk to books" or "talk to scientific papers".

No, you're thinking AI can do this alone. Let me tell you - it can't. If it has 1% error rate in information extraction from documents, you need to manually verify everything. Like Tesla's SDC, 99% there is nothing groundbreaking.

I have been working on this very task for 5+ years. I know every paper and model there is. I tested all public APIs for this task. I extensively used GPT-3 for it, and that's my professional judgement.

As for AI validation, it can be 10x more comfortable than manual information extraction, but still requires about 50% of the manual effort. It is not making people suddenly 10x more effective.

Not even OCR is 100% accurate. The best systems have 95% accuracy on noisy document scans. One digit or comma could make the whole transaction absurd, if you send those money without checking you could go in bankruptcy.

The best models we have today are good at generating correct answers 90% of the time - code, factual questions, reasoning. They can do it all but not perfectly. We don't know the risks and can't use this level of confidence without human in the loop.

You don't need AI to have porn and games 24/7, and still can't see more than 1% of what is published. Same for music, books, movies, hobbies. In the future we're going to add AI on top, but the mountain was already pretty high.

Agree. It's just getting more and more addictive is what I'm trying to say. When smartphones came out, nobody was glued to their screen all the time. With social media things got progressively worse over time. Average screentime per day went from minutes to hours. AI will just allow you to make you even more addicted if you don't watch out.

I'm not saying artificial intelligence is the devil, it simply helps you amplify good and bad things by a big magnitude.

Try "What is the world record for crossing the English Channel entirely on foot?"

This question, originally constructed by Douglas Hofstadter and David Bender, is a succinct way to elicit hallucinatory responses in ChatGPT, but also fails all known search engines today.

Maybe the new search GPT from MS will solve it - it will combine search with LLMs, as opposed to using just one of them alone. Answer hint - you can cross by the Channel Tunnel, and some people did.

This is the current "search disease" - you explicitly ask "entirely on foot" and it will respond with "by boat", "in a dinghy", "in a hovercraft", etc ... anything BUT what you ask for.

I think most people wouldn't even mind ads nearly as much, if they were relevant. The two most egregious part of ads is

1. They make them as annoying as possible and they lag the piss out of your browsing experience
2. They are basically all trash and anyone under the age of 40 completely ignores them and knows not to even glance at them because they aren't relevant / aren't good deals

If the ads were targetted towards me and were actually enticing, I might actually care and look at them.

Like "Oh I see you were looking at a 4090 and computer cases, here's a coupon for 25% off if you buy the case + GPU from our website"

I might go "Hmm well I'm going to have to buy it anyway so I might as well buy from them"

To Bing yes. To any other browser other than Firefox no. It's the last bastion of non Chromium browsers. The last man standing fighting against Google monopoly on browser tech.

Bing is way, way better for porn last I heard, and has a trillion times better video browser. They also pay you to use it

There's honestly no real place Google is better besides just being the default and it being too much work to swap it

You assume humans have 100% accuracy?

Don't ask for porn, ask for satisfaction

If you're debugging code you don't have to be accurate until the problem is fixed. Mistakes will be common. Accuracy is not absolutely necessary. But competence is. It will be a long damn time before something like chatGPT will find an fix subtle bugs that occur in a production system with many interacting services distributed across multiple computers running software controlled by different corporations.

>I think most people wouldn't even mind ads nearly as much, if they were relevant

For me, relevant means it's something I'm likely to want to buy. But I'm pretty conservative with my money and I'm not very materialistic. And I'm not a young person building a life. I have a routine that doesn't change much. So if it's REALLY relevant for me personally then I might see an ad per month for a reasonably priced product I can make good use of and wouldn't mind the interruption. It will be a cold day in hell when that happens.

I asked chatGPT and it named a swimmer. I asked why it thought that qualified as crossing by foot and it said something about how most people think of that as crossing without the assistance of a motor or floatation device. Then I asked it who had crossed strictly by walking/running and it named "Dave Henson" who went 32 miles "across the water". I asked if he crossed in a tunnel, since obviously he couldn't have run on the water, and got this answer which I *think* is bogus?

"Dave Henson ran on a support vessel that accompanied him during his crossing of the English Channel. The support vessel was equipped with a specially designed treadmill, on which Dave was able to run and cover the distance of the crossing. The support vessel followed a designated shipping lane, and Dave's run was monitored by a team of officials and observers to ensure that the rules for this type of crossing were followed."

Really? They designed a special treadmill that made Dave run at the same speed as the vessel, all so he could prove he can run that far on a treadmill (which you could do in your home with exactly the same challenges instead of riding across the channel). I don't buy it.

I agree with you point and think about it the same way. Even a great GPT 4 is useless when your nodejs app does not work and chat gtp4 just gives up on it. I think a half good Software Developer is capable of trying until it works. He will sleep on it, he will try, he will talk to other people about it and then he will learn on the way.

​

At some point your nodejs app will work and you are happy. The question is if an AI will reach this level. Even an accuracy of 99.9% still means the app does not work. Can it fix the last ten bugs on its own? If not you need to hire someone to spend many days on this app, hire a real person.

​

Maybe this new technology just leads to better Code Quality. It can streamline you Spaghetti Code and give it a proper documentation. Maybe a Sales person can ask the AI "Can our program do x and then y?" and the AI will say: "Not yet, but with an estimated time of two weeks development that might be possible". That would greatly increase information flow in companies.

​

So lets see if current Machine Learning can reach a level where it impacts the world. Its an exciting time to be alive.

Your explanation is spot on. My one-line take on it is that a larger percentage jobs are AGI-hard than most people are assuming. Take driving for example.

I also think that a lot of people are underestimating how difficult most jobs are, even when it's a job that can be described as "just looking at a spreadsheet".

When it starts answering that question with Jesus, that's when I'm out.

Oh, I can tell you stories about human accuracy. At some point I re-labelled the same test set three times and was still finding errors. My models surpass untrained human accuracy, but still need hand holding, there's one error on every page on average. Humans do more cross checking and correlating, filling a gap in AI.

There is potential for abuse in it, ..and potential for great good. It will probably deliver both.

I think "evil is other people" applies here - too many trying to control LLMs, we need to be the masters of our models, they should be private and under our physical control, just like our brains. Who will be the first to make a cheap GPT-N chip we can carry in our pocket? Can't let something as private as your AI assistant be spied and filtered by others.

I went through all the links. Did I miss something?

I didn't find anything confirming any release schedule for GPT-4.

I saw some screen shots and talk of bing getting GPT integration - but they could be doing that with the chatGPT api that isn't public yet. Or even GPT-3 for now and will switch it out for GPT-4 later.

Nothing about the actual real GPT-4 timeline though. It's the "coming weeks" part that I object to. It makes it sound like its 2 or 3 weeks away. Which it might be - but there's no actual evidence of that provided.

The context space of understanding the content within a spreadsheet versus a dynamic physical world (driving) are night and day in complexity.

I seriously doubt Google executives are in DC warning about this, given that most experts believe AGI is still a good ways off (few/several decades).

Integrating the next model of GPT into Search is literally the most boring application of this tech I can think of.

It is so low yield it isn't worth even thinking about. It'll be useful for kids under the age of 16 doing homework or for people to get recipes. It'll probably save a tiny fraction of search users a few seconds from the answer they would have gotten from Wikipedia or another website.

Yawn. Yawn yawn yawn.

We can respond with AI enhanced ad blockers.

It depends on how complex the program is. I think it will be much harder to have an AI that can code a program such as a browser entirely by itself versus a fully driverless car AI.

[deleted]

John Carmack? Meh, I'd put Fabrice Bellard on the end of the spectrum.

Oh no, ads for products or services you might actually be interested in!

>DDG mostly instead

My understanding is that DDG is Bing, just wrapped and your information only going to MS and not Google and Facebook.

I’m pretty sure duckduckgo uses bing for search results. But the way this article describes it, the gpt features will be a layer on top of search, so i guess duckduckgo won’t benefit. oh well.

IMO that's part of what they have to calculate for relevant. I'm also extremely thrifty and browse sites like slickdeals before I buy anything.

An AI with my search history should pretty easily be able to tell "Okay he just made a big purchase for a $2,000 GPU so he isn't going to be spending much again for a while.

Instead, what about some super cheap stuff that he might need instead. He searched for 'how to unfreeze windshield wipers from windshield in ice' so maybe an advertisement for 35% off a set of windshield wipers for his car which is model XYZ will be enticing?"

IMO that's the main power of an AI ad engine. It should be able to use common sense and make a personality profile for what I'm actually likely to care about, and then budget it for me. It should also know who's extremely thrifty and won't buy without a discount, and offer you a reason to actually buy it

[deleted]

Wow, this Owen guy sure is extrapolating a lot from his limited time with Bing's ChatGPT extension. Something doesn't seem right here...

You are right. Search is their cash cow. No matter who replaces it, Google loses money.

Just made the full switch today! Everything synced easily over to bing. I'm also on the waiting list for chat gpt!!!