Creative_soja t1_j498rog wrote on January 14, 2023 at 1:18 AM

From the article

" the projected deaths are not necessarily lower in scenarios with less warming or cleaner air. This is because while reducing PM2.5 pollution lowers the exposure level, increasing the size of vulnerable populations can significantly increase PM2.5-related deaths. For most countries, we find that changes in socio-demographic factors (for example, ageing and declining baseline mortality rates) play a more important role than the exposure level in shaping future health burden."

So, the gains from cleaner air are offset by demographic aging. Older people are more susceptible than the younger ones to air pollutant risks.

AlejoRamirezO OP t1_j49d4ll wrote on January 14, 2023 at 1:51 AM

Yes, and the increase in population also increases the health burden, since more people will be susceptible to respiratory diseases.

richmondres t1_j49qyej wrote on January 14, 2023 at 3:42 AM

Sorry, full article is behaving a paywall, and I can’t tell from just the abstract and blurry figures: are the authors saying that decreasing PM2.5 exposures increases the size of vulnerable populations because folks who would die in high exposure models live longer, and then die, under low exposure models? Or is there some other mechanism that links larger vulnerable populations to increased survivorship relative to high PM2.5 scenarios?

AlejoRamirezO OP t1_j4bsyoc wrote on January 14, 2023 at 4:25 PM

As I understand it, the researchers say that the increase in vulnerable populations is simply due to population growth and the increase in average life. And that associated deaths don´t decrease with less air pollution, but rather increase with demographic distribution and other mechanisms. If you want the full article write me a message with your email.

richmondres t1_j4e0x08 wrote on January 15, 2023 at 1:22 AM

Thank you. I was able to locate an open access link that the authors shared. It seems like they are contrasting potential developmental trajectories, which are also associated with different patterns of PM2.5 emissions. The scenario associated with the highest level of emissions assumes rapid economic growth and improvements in healthcare (as does the two scenarios with the lowest levels of emissions). In those scenarios, they anticipate population aging and lower baseline mortality, and so cause of death patterns shift to those reflect age-related vulnerabilities.