smf0x10 t1_j3olhvh wrote on January 10, 2023 at 12:20 AM

Reply to comment by autistic_bard444 in Earth’s ozone layer on course to be healed within decades, UN report finds | Most of atmospheric layer that protects planet from ultraviolet radiation likely to be fully recovered for most of world by 2040. by SetMau92

That’s the worst case for warming above preindustrial levels by 2100, actually, not 2050. At least, it used to be the worst case. Thanks to the action that HAS happened since the early 2000s, that figure is down to around 2.8c by 2100 if all the current measures stay in place and nothing else changes. That’s still terrible, don’t get me wrong; it’s enough to seriously hurt a bunch of ecosystems and cause famines in third-world countries, but it probably won’t mean the end of the human race. Climate change remains a massive problem, but exaggerating the dangers doesn’t help anyone

autistic_bard444 t1_j3om5i4 wrote on January 10, 2023 at 12:24 AM

2100 humans will live underground
remember how they said 1.5c for the past 40 years
mean while we passed that long ago. 2.8 is still a pipe dream because it means human have to change their entire civilization. and we both know that will not happen until gen z and millennials get in charge of policies that gen x and the baby boomers were too apathetic in their capitalism to fix

exaggerating the dangers. shell oil did that since the late 1950s, when they knew oil production would wreck the environment. dont get me started on oil tar sands.

when corporations rule politics over the world over, expecting any type of long term change which does not profit them is a pipe dream

smf0x10 t1_j3ov1qq wrote on January 10, 2023 at 1:26 AM

We still haven't passed 1.5 degrees C above preindustrial levels, though that is unlikely to still be true by the end of the century. We're at about 1.2 right now. Current policies are predicted to keep warming to 2.8 degrees (plus or minus 0.5) by the end of the century, according to the 2021 UN Emission Gap Report.

https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2021#:~:text=DOWNLOAD%20THE%20FULL%20REPORT

The precise statistic I'm citing is on page 26 of the PDF.

In summary, 2.8 is not a pipe dream, it's something we've already achieved. And I stand by my statement about exaggerating the dangers. When you pretend the problem is worse than it is and that efforts to solve it haven't done anything, it inspires people to stop trying to fix it. Fossil fuel companies want that to happen. They have a history of denying that climate change is happening or how dangerous it truly is, but as more people get more educated on and concerned about the subject, that strategy is becoming less and less viable. So, the next step is to make the problem look insurmountable, to make people give up on pressuring the government to change things.

And if you think your version of the events is necessary to startle people into action, the current situation does not need exaggerating. That number has to get below 2 degrees before I'll begin feeling comfortable with it, but 5 degrees Celsius by 2050 is not our future and it never has been.