corgibutt19 t1_j3ma1bx wrote on January 9, 2023 at 3:36 PM

Reply to comment by BurnerAcc2020 in Deep overturning circulation collapses with strong warming, which could cause a "disaster" in the world's oceans. by sibti

2300 is not very far away, especially on the historical timeline or when you consider how hard it will be to decrease the human contributions to warming. If we only care about the warming that will affect the living population, we are stupid and shortsighted.

BurnerAcc2020 t1_j3mfuss wrote on January 9, 2023 at 4:15 PM

If what that paper means by "worst-case" is the same as the standard definition in this literature (hard to tell because of the paywall), then it essentially assumes continual acceleration of human contributions to warming, which is extremely implausible. (There are even some papers which argue that there are not enough fossil fuels to enable those rates of warming in the first place.) The rate of warming which is actually projected nowadays (see the last link in that comment) is well below that which is considered in the paper, and was found by the other papers I linked to have limited effects on at least the Atlantic circulation.