With modern information flow it seems that the greatest impacts, short of hard lockdown, are people reacting to the disease. Big hits to activity in 2020 tended to both be independent of most policy and preceded the orders.

E.g.

https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-021-10676-1

Domestic US Air travel for example dropped more than 70% but this was never officially restricted.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590198220301883

Meanwhile, social distancing advisories and stuff like 50% capacity - especially without requiring effective masks - are also probably too confusing and definitely too weak to stop something like COVID.