grundar t1_j1bbj41 wrote
Reply to comment by Arborensis in Changes in Earth’s orbit that favored hotter conditions may have helped trigger a rapid global warming event 56 million years ago that is considered an analogue for modern climate change by giuliomagnifico
> > emissions growth rates have declined 80% in the last 15 years, yearly emissions are expected to peak within 3 years, and emissions are expected to fall 10-20% by 2030.
>
> Critically though, your argument does also make the assumption that we can lower/stop emissions gradually and halt effects.
That's not an assumption, that's an observation of recent data.
> There are some tipping points present which may be irreversible.
Important tipping points have their effects over centuries of highly elevated temperatures.
This paper examined known tipping points; I extracted a list of them with the paper's values for:
- Threshold temperature
- Effect
- Timescale
If you look at those values, it turns out that there are no nearer-warming (<4C), near-term (<200 year timescale) tipping points with large global impact.
Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments