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grundar t1_j1bbj41 wrote

> > emissions growth rates have declined 80% in the last 15 years, yearly emissions are expected to peak within 3 years, and emissions are expected to fall 10-20% by 2030.
>
> Critically though, your argument does also make the assumption that we can lower/stop emissions gradually and halt effects.

That's not an assumption, that's an observation of recent data.

> There are some tipping points present which may be irreversible.

Important tipping points have their effects over centuries of highly elevated temperatures.

This paper examined known tipping points; I extracted a list of them with the paper's values for:

  • Threshold temperature
  • Effect
  • Timescale
    If you look at those values, it turns out that there are no nearer-warming (<4C), near-term (<200 year timescale) tipping points with large global impact.
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