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Arborensis t1_j1b3enp wrote

Reply to comment by grundar in Changes in Earth’s orbit that favored hotter conditions may have helped trigger a rapid global warming event 56 million years ago that is considered an analogue for modern climate change by giuliomagnifico

Critically though, your argument does also make the assumption that we can lower/stop emissions gradually and halt effects. There are some tipping points present which may be irreversible.

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grundar t1_j1bbj41 wrote

> > emissions growth rates have declined 80% in the last 15 years, yearly emissions are expected to peak within 3 years, and emissions are expected to fall 10-20% by 2030.
>
> Critically though, your argument does also make the assumption that we can lower/stop emissions gradually and halt effects.

That's not an assumption, that's an observation of recent data.

> There are some tipping points present which may be irreversible.

Important tipping points have their effects over centuries of highly elevated temperatures.

This paper examined known tipping points; I extracted a list of them with the paper's values for:

  • Threshold temperature
  • Effect
  • Timescale
    If you look at those values, it turns out that there are no nearer-warming (<4C), near-term (<200 year timescale) tipping points with large global impact.
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