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Wagamaga OP t1_ix7wauo wrote

Climate change is increasing the probability that tropical cyclones rapidly grow into intense, damaging hurricanes in a few hours, according to a new study published in Nature Communications.

Links between human-caused global warming and the strength of storms have previously been suggested, but now, research shows how a warmer world is making storms transform rapidly into powerful hurricanes or typhoons in a single day, posing a huge challenge to weather forecasters.

The study, co-authored by National Centre for Atmospheric Science scientists, concludes that rising global temperatures are significantly increasing the rate of storms rapidly intensifying.

These stronger storms disproportionately risk lives and devastate homes and businesses, as Hurricane Ian did in Florida in September 2022.

Dr Alex Baker, National Centre for Atmospheric Science and the University of Reading, who co-wrote the study, explains:

“Hurricanes are natural events that have always been with us, and a rare few strengthen rapidly. We have discovered how increasing greenhouse gas emissions are making it much more likely that tropical storms rapidly turn into dangerous and less predictable cyclones, and this is happening globally.”

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-34321-6

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sassmo t1_ix81cb7 wrote

Meh, it's Florida. Let it sink back into the mangroves.

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PolymerSledge t1_ix826d3 wrote

Would this rapid transition also fuel faster dissipation of said storm by expending potential energy available to the storm system more quickly?

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Banea-Vaedr t1_ix82c87 wrote

I've noticed that young people understand regional weather patterns these days way better than older people and sometimes predictive software

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thewarehouse t1_ix85us8 wrote

They said clearly this was going to happen and now it's happening.

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Droidatopia t1_ix8frew wrote

It's weird that Hurricane Ian is referenced here. The uncertainty with Ian was not the intensity prediction, which was accurate days out.

The problem with Ian was the massive uncertainty in the track a few days prior to landfall. Even then, the forecasters were extremely upfront about this, BUT only if you read the forecast discussions. The real problem with Ian is the graphics don't always give a good sense of what the forecasters know and how they know it, and everyone from the media to the county/state officials seems to only ever look at the graphics.

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NotAnotherEmpire t1_ix8ttax wrote

Replying to Droidatopia (#601,579)

Michael is the much better example. Rapidly intensified into a Catagory 5, which had dire consequences for wind damage.

The wind speed difference between a 3 and a 4 in SW Florida, which has very tough building codes, is minimal. Problem there is surge and that's based on physical size and track.

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plumppshady t1_ix929pe wrote

Replying to thewarehouse (#600,726)

They also said even if humanity as a whole stopped producing any air pollution, the pollution of what we've already pumped into the atmosphere will continue heating the planet for the next 700 years. So honestly it's a lost cause. Nothing we do will stop it or even make it less worse for ourselves now. Wed be doing it for distant future humanity.

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jackson71 t1_ix9tgco wrote

How far back do official/accurate weather records go back?

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art-man_2018 t1_ixa50xo wrote

This recent snowstorm is another indication that even winter can become deadly and unusual, and some forecasters are predicting another massive one on the way this week. If you are traveling within the Northeast US, keep track of the weather.

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Podgrowing t1_ixabppf wrote

Replying to NotAnotherEmpire (#602,830)

Hurricane Opal in the 90s did something similar AFTER back tracking back to the gulf and shooting back to the panhandle. It had forecasters and meteorologists perplexed for a week with no knowledge what it would actually end up doing. I remember my pop waking the 3 of us up and running us to folks in Alabama in the middle of the night and he drove back to deal with storm surge that got 5 feet in to our house…

Hurricane Ivan in 2004 did a similar intense/rapid swelling in force prior to landfall. It decimated Pensacola Florida harder than any hurricane I’d experienced in my 40 years there. Wiping out a major interstate bridge and more.

These events aren’t new, they’re just becoming more common, as forecasted generations ago. I’ve lived through 13 named major storms and countless tropicals. I hated living there. Whole heartedly.

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Bellabonvoyage t1_ixamegk wrote

Just gonna have a front row seat to the horrible then....

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HughJareolas t1_ixb4p25 wrote

Replying to PolymerSledge (#600,373)

No, because there’s always more warm ocean water to feed storms in the tropics and Caribbean. The main way they dissipate is getting “starved” over land or making their way north to cooler water in the upper Atlantic

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Bluedotsaint t1_ixb80q3 wrote

We should try to adapt like on Sim City or Actraiser. Dome houses are more aerodynamic, use less building materials, and if you have a double dome home your house like like a pair of tiddies.

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