Droidatopia t1_ix8frew wrote
It's weird that Hurricane Ian is referenced here. The uncertainty with Ian was not the intensity prediction, which was accurate days out.
The problem with Ian was the massive uncertainty in the track a few days prior to landfall. Even then, the forecasters were extremely upfront about this, BUT only if you read the forecast discussions. The real problem with Ian is the graphics don't always give a good sense of what the forecasters know and how they know it, and everyone from the media to the county/state officials seems to only ever look at the graphics.
NotAnotherEmpire t1_ix8ttax wrote
Michael is the much better example. Rapidly intensified into a Catagory 5, which had dire consequences for wind damage.
The wind speed difference between a 3 and a 4 in SW Florida, which has very tough building codes, is minimal. Problem there is surge and that's based on physical size and track.
Podgrowing t1_ixabppf wrote
Hurricane Opal in the 90s did something similar AFTER back tracking back to the gulf and shooting back to the panhandle. It had forecasters and meteorologists perplexed for a week with no knowledge what it would actually end up doing. I remember my pop waking the 3 of us up and running us to folks in Alabama in the middle of the night and he drove back to deal with storm surge that got 5 feet in to our house…
Hurricane Ivan in 2004 did a similar intense/rapid swelling in force prior to landfall. It decimated Pensacola Florida harder than any hurricane I’d experienced in my 40 years there. Wiping out a major interstate bridge and more.
These events aren’t new, they’re just becoming more common, as forecasted generations ago. I’ve lived through 13 named major storms and countless tropicals. I hated living there. Whole heartedly.
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